As the nation warms up for election 2020, all eyes are in search for that lucky Ghanaian expected to partner ex-President John Mahama on the ticket of the NDC. In line with practice, it is conclusive that the Running Mate will be a worthy personality who hails from the southern sector of the country, since the Flagbearer is an indigene from the northern sector.

The discussion on this matter has consequently centered on identifying which southern sector region that the Running Mate would be selected from. The Volta Region caucus within the party originally made a claim for the Running Mate position, because of their ‘World Bank’ status in the party. They later gave up their claim, upon sober reflection, therefore freeing the hands of the Presidential Candidate to select from any of the other southern sector regions.

As expected, leading members of the party who hail from the rest of the southern sector regions have therefore started intense lobbying to justify why they and their regions merit the number two slot in the party.  Each of the following traditional regions, Western, Eastern, Greater Accra, Ashanti, Central and Brong Ahafo regions have at least one person as an indigene who is lobbying for selection.

The presentation of these Vice Presidential hopefuls is their claim that, their regions also need to produce an NDC Running Mate. It is, however, important to note, that the mere selection of a Vice Presidential candidate from a region, is not good enough a reason that the NDC will win majority of votes in that particular region. Since independence, factors influencing votes in a region go beyond the choice of someone who traces his routes to the region. The Central Region, which has throughout the 4^th Republic produced a son for the NDC Presidential ticket, is an easy reference to this fact. Therefore, the consideration for a suitable and worthy personality to partner President John Mahama must be subjected to some scientific analysis to capture the testable effect of that choice on the regional and national election results in 2020.

From 1992, the NDC has dominated the Volta, Northern, Upper East and Upper West regions, whilst the NPP maintain dominance over the Ashanti and Eastern regions. Interestingly, the NPP has been increasing its base in the NDC dominated regions. For example, the NPP now has taken almost half of the total number of Parliamentary seats in the Upper West region. Same applies to NPP’s exploits in the Northern and Upper East regions. A development which was unthinkable some years back. Conversely, the NDC is not able to increase its votes in the NPP dominated regions. The NDC has consistently failed to score even 30% of the votes, in the populous Ashanti Region. The only time the NDC had 32.9% of the Ashanti Region votes was in 1996 when President Jerry John Rawlings beat then candidate John Agyekum Kufuor (the 2^nd President of the 4^th Republic) with a national score of 57% of valid votes cast.

The question, therefore, is what the NDC is doing to appreciate its votes in the NPP dominated regions. It is worth noting that by winning only two regions (Ashanti and Eastern regions) in 2012, then candidate Akufo Addo had 48% of the total national score and petitioned the Supreme Court for a ruling that He won the presidential race. This, therefore, raises the fact that the NPP dominated regions have a higher number of electorates than the NDC dominated regions. As an opposition leader seeking to win 2020, former President Mahama, thus has his work cut out for him: to penetrate and invade the backyard of the ruling NPP party and inflict heavy damage to their fortunes.

From a cursory look at the numbers, the NDC cannot afford to allow the NPP to secure another 76% of the 2.2 million Ashanti Region votes. John Mahama by his choice of a Running Mate should consider a brilliant strategy that will repeat what Jerry Rawlings did in 1996: secure above 32% of the votes in Ashanti Region and force the NPP to shrink in the swing regions of cosmopolitan Accra, Central, Western and the Brong Ahafo regions. For Akufo Addo to bag 1.6 million votes in the Ashanti Region alone, leaving John Mahama to settle for only 500,000 votes, as we witnessed in 2016, will not auger well for the NDC’s victory 2020 project.

The onus is on the appointing authority to consider:

• What are the issues that will rekindle the hearts of Ashantis in their region to repeat what they did for the husband of their sister/aunty, Nana Konadu Agyemang, in 1996?
•  What are the expectations and interests of Ashantis, for which reason the NDC can ask 35% of that population to help the NDC flagbearer and his Running Mate to the Flagstaff House in 2020?
• Will it not be a master’s stroke of a decision; should there be an offer for Ashantis to consider voting for one of their own distinguished, much respected and a true son, to go to the Flag Staff House as Vice President of Ghana, in 2020? (After all, they the Ashantis say, the one seeking to bring glory to the Asante kingdom should not be denied support).

Considering that the people of Ashanti feel they have been rejected and abandoned after voting massively for Nana Akuffo Addo in 2016, only for him to turn his back on them and practice an Akyem family and friends’ government, the timing is therefore right for the NDC to consider an affair with the region through a choice of a Running Mate. A well-known Ashanti on the ticket of the NDC will greatly change the narrative in favor of the NDC, when Ashantis discuss their political interest and choices ahead of 2020.

Should this pride of Ashantis, so having been chosen, succeed in creating a wedge between some of his tribesmen and the Akyem-controlled NPP, His campaign will suppress the votes of the NPP in the home region of Ashantis. More so, as Vice Presidential Candidate, this Ashanti great can generate more votes in 2020 and break the 32% jinx, which will represent over 400,000 additional and fresh votes for the NDC in that region alone. The cascading effect of this will propel the NDC into power, next year, all things being equal.

In the subsequent conversation to follow soon, The Socialist Intelligential shall be focusing on the personality traits and qualities required of the would-be Running Mate to Flagbearer John Mahama, in order to boost confidence and secure a national appeal for the NDC ticket.

Comrade Ato Kwamina Bondzie (Director of Research – Socialist Intelligential)