In a world where weather forecasts have become as commonplace as morning coffee, some individuals have chosen to defy the tide.

Emmanuel Sarpong, a 35-year-old with a unique perspective, refuses to pay any attention to the Ghana Meteorological Agency's (GMet) weather predictions.

While some rely on these forecasts to plan their daily lives, Emmanuel's unwavering belief is that they are nothing more than inaccurate predictions. But is he right, or is he missing out on the valuable insights that GMet provides?

The Man Who Dances with the Wind

Emmanuel, a resident of Kumasi, Ghana, is unlike most of his peers. He doesn't own a weather app on his smartphone, nor does he check the daily forecast on television, radio or social media. To Emmanuel, the idea of planning his day around what the weather might hold is absurd.

"I've never really believed in these forecasts," Emmanuel admits, with a nonchalant shrug. "I've gone through life without needing them, and it's worked just fine for me."

However, Emmanuel's dismissive attitude toward GMet's weather predictions has come at a cost.

The Price of Skepticism

Emmanuel's stubborn stance on the irrelevance of weather forecasts has, on numerous occasions, led to inconveniences and disruptions in his daily life. He recalls instances when he was caught unprepared in heavy downpours on his way to work or left sweltering under the scorching sun without sunscreen.

"Sure, I've been caught in a few storms," Emmanuel concedes. "But I've also experienced some unforgettable moments when I just went with the flow, rain or shine."

Emmanuel's position aligns with that of 47-year-old Tahidu Amin from Gushegu in the Northern region. Despite receiving weather predictions from his colleague Abubakari Mohammed, Tahidu admits he never placed much trust in those forecasts.

However, one fateful day, Tahidu found himself caught in heavy rains when he chose to disregard the weather prediction shared by Abubakari. He was on his way home from school when the incident occurred, and he ended up completely drenched. "I got thoroughly soaked that day," he expressed, later regretting his decision.

Tahidu continues to assert that he has consistently advised people against relying on weather forecasts. "There is one individual who frequently inquires with Abubakar about the day's weather predictions, but I always tell them not to depend on weather forecasts," he explained.

In various instances, numerous skeptics have found themselves ensnared in the midst of flooding or witnessing their homes submerged due to their disregard of weather alerts issued by GMet. Unfortunately, such situations have occasionally resulted in fatalities, with bodies discovered the following day.

A poignant example transpired in September 2023 when torrential downpours inundated several areas in Kumasi, the Ashanti Regional capital. During this one-hour deluge, a five-year-old girl was tragically swept away by the floodwaters. The young child had sought refuge from the heavy rain after her school day had ended. On this fateful day, GMet had issued a weather warning, aiming to forewarn Ghanaians about the impending weather conditions. Moreover, daily weather forecasts were also made available to the public.

Friends’ Perspective

In stark contrast to Emmanuel and Tahidu's skepticism stands Seidu Mohammed, from Ejura in the Ashanti region and avid consumer of GMet's weather forecasts. Seidu has faithfully monitored GMet's predictions for over three years and believes that they have shown remarkable improvements in accuracy during this time.

"GMet's forecasts have made my life so much easier," Seidu explains. "I share them daily with my friends and contacts to help them plan their activities. It's all about being prepared."

Four years ago, Seidu faced a significant predicament as a farmer. His agricultural pursuits relied heavily on the timely arrival of rains, particularly for the cultivation of major seasonal crops like maize and cowpea. However, the inherent unpredictability of the region's weather posed a formidable challenge, making it virtually impossible to ascertain when the essential rains would grace his fields.

Seidu reflected on these trials, saying, "Over the past few years, we were affected by long dry spells and other things." Consequently, Seidu sought solace in GMet's weather information, which is widely disseminated through social media platforms, with a notable presence on WhatsApp.

To efficiently plan his daily agricultural activities, Seidu has adopted a daily routine of checking the weather forecast each morning, typically around 5 a.m. He emphasized the critical role this practice plays in his work, noting, "When you are going to the farm, and you don't have any weather information, it is like you are in darkness. Sometimes, you go and apply some chemicals, you come home and the rain falls on them. It becomes waste. So when you are able to know today, maybe, the predictions of the GMet, we are likely to have rainfall, why should I go and waste my time?"

Not content with merely benefiting from GMet's weather updates, Seidu takes on the role of a local weather information disseminator, extending this knowledge to fellow farmers through a local platform he initiated. Speaking about the community, he affirmed, "Ejura is a farming community and we have a lot of farmers - everyone is actually a farmer, and so we create other platforms where we add members, send the information to them, so they can also benefit from what we are benefiting."

Seidu expressed his gratitude for the consistency exhibited by the Meteo agency, praising their continuous provision of valuable weather information throughout the day. According to him, "I think the Meteo agency has been very consistent over the years, and they keep giving us information day in day out. They give us updates about three times every day, in the morning; it comes in the afternoon and the evening. I think it has helped a lot."

Seidu's compatriots in agriculture, Abdul Gafar Osman and Sulemana Abubakar, share their journey. They have all faced financial setbacks in past seasons due to their lack of access to timely weather information, a hindrance they have now overcome through Seidu's GMet-informed guidance.

Mr. Osman, who lost a significant sum of about 112,600 cedis in the last two years, narrates that he had to re-plough and replant his fields multiple times due to inadequate weather information. However, the trio has since adopted Seidu's platform for weather insights, which has enabled them to make informed decisions about planting, plowing, and pesticide applications. They recounted situations from the past when such decisions were made blindly.

Mr. Osman shared his newfound experience, saying, "But since we started getting the updates, it helps because it will tell you when it will rain, so you will also have to take your own decision. The right time to spray so that you will not run at a loss, so it helps a lot. Currently, the platform is helping me a lot to know when to farm my farm produce. It helps me to plan well. But in the olden days, you will see the rain and you might think that the rain will go far."

Sulemana's account echoes Mr. Osman's, emphasizing the substantial benefits gained from their informed agricultural decisions.

Changes in Weather Patterns and its impact

Ghana has witnessed a disturbing surge in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, particularly dry spells, and heavy rainfall, which frequently lead to destruction. This dire consequence results in population displacement, loss of lives, and extensive damage to infrastructure.

Northern Ghana, in particular, has borne the brunt of recurrent and severe flooding in recent years, notably in 2007, 2010, 2012, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. The 2010 flood event alone impacted over 100,000 people, underscoring the gravity of these disasters. The principal causes of these devastating floods have been linked to a combination of intense rainfall and the controlled discharge of water from the Bagre Dam, located in Burkina Faso.

Tragedy struck on August 12, 2023, when four farmers lost their lives on the western side of the Golinga Irrigation Dam, near Nyankpala in the Tolon District of the Northern Region. They met their unfortunate fate while attempting to cross the dam using a canoe. In 2021, another grim incident unfolded when five individuals tragically drowned within 24 hours in two districts of the North East Region.

Beginning in June 2023, the Volta Region grappled with significant flooding that led to the displacement of approximately 3,000 residents in the Keta Municipal District. Subsequently, the Ashanti Region, between June 21 and 22, 2023, witnessed flooding incidents in Atafoa, Sepaase, and Tafo, resulting in the loss of four lives. The situation was especially perilous near rivers.

On June 24, 2023, a government official tragically lost his life while attempting to cross a swollen river in Kumasi. The Western Region encountered approximately 50 homes damaged in the Ahanta West Municipal District, with the Bonsa River overflowing and affecting numerous homes in the Tarkwa-Nsuaem Municipal District. That same day, three individuals met their demise while trying to navigate the flooded Subri River in Daboase, Wassa East District.

In 2022, flooding woes persisted, with over 500 homes impacted by flooding in Ashalaja, Greater Accra Region. Residents directed blame at a property developer for exacerbating the situation by permitting water from the Densu River to inundate the area.

Impact of Over 2000 Natural Disasters in Africa Since 1970

The Centre for Science and Environment’s (CSE)comprehensive report on the state of Africa's environment released on October 11, 2023, in Nairobi reveals that Africa has witnessed over 2000 natural disasters since 1970, affecting a staggering 500 million individuals and resulting in the unfortunate loss of 0.5 million lives. These devastating outcomes can be attributed to significant climate changes that the continent has experienced.

The report underscores the alarming frequency and intensity of weather-related disasters, emphasizing the unimaginable ferocity with which these calamities strike African nations.

Sunita Narain, the Director General of CSE, points out the severe impact of climate change on agricultural-dependent countries like Ghana, Chad, and Mauritania. These nations, according to the report are acutely aware of the profound interconnection between agricultural production and its environmental consequences.

Of particular concern is the report's warning about Africa's youth, who hold deep apprehensions about the future of agriculture on the continent. This stands in stark contrast to the prevailing attitude in Europe, where climate change often remains a distant concern until its dire consequences are experienced elsewhere.

The report highlights that in the absence of effective countermeasures, many families and children are at risk of sinking further into poverty, forcing them to abandon their homes and seek refuge elsewhere.

GMet's Journey Towards Precision

To gain deeper insights into GMet's accuracy and ongoing improvements, we reached out to Eric Asuman, the Acting Director General of GMet. Mr. Asuman acknowledged that while the agency faces its share of challenges, it has made significant strides in recent years.

He says that the availability of about 4 radar systems, 120 automated weather stations, 350 agrometeorological stations, and 600 gauges spread across the country is vital for generating location-specific forecasts.

Although these instruments and equipment come at a significant cost, GMet emphasizes that by integrating radar and satellite data, the resultant weather forecasts are poised to be highly dependable, offering valuable insights to facilitate informed decision-making.

"We are committed to achieving 100% location-specific forecasts," Mr. Asuman states. "This ambitious goal is being pursued through the expansion of our infrastructure, including the installation of four radar systems, 120 automated weather stations, 350 agro-meteorological stations, and 600 gauges spread across the country. By integrating radar and satellite data, we are poised to provide highly dependable forecasts."

The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) offers forecasts three times a day, as well as weather advisories and warnings whenever significant weather events are detected. They provide three-day, weekly, and seasonal forecasts, along with sub-seasonal forecasts ranging from one week to three weeks or a month.

The central analysis and forecasting office serves as the hub for collecting and analyzing weather and climate data, which is then disseminated to the public. A majority of researchers are stationed at this office to monitor shifts in weather patterns and communicate these changes to the general population.

By the end of 2023, GMet aims to acquire about 61 new automatic weather stations, in addition to the current 22 manual stations, to bring them closer to the goal of establishing 120 weather stations nationwide. There are intentions to transition towards employing self-recording automatic weather stations in order to enhance the timeliness and precision of data collection

Finding the Balance

Emmanuel and Tahidu's stories serve as a vivid reminder of the diversity of perspectives in the modern world. While some, like Seidu and his friends, find immense value in GMet's forecasts, others like Emmanuel and Tahidu remain skeptical. However, as GMet continues to enhance its capabilities and work towards providing more precise forecasts, the hope is that individuals like Emmanuel and Tahidu may one day come to see the forecasts as dependable as the rising sun.

The story of contrasting views highlights the importance of accurate weather forecasts in our daily lives. It also underscores the ongoing journey of skepticism, trust, tradition, and progress in Ghana's weather landscape, with the promise of clearer skies and more reliable forecasts on the horizon.