Kirk Kuuku Otoo, Public Policy Analyst

Mavis Kemeh, Planning and Budgeting Advisor

Competitive Clientelism has been with Ghana since the colonial era. In the then Gold Coast, the first ever general election was held on the 8th of February, 1951.

This was a legislative election that saw the Convention Peoples’ Party (CPP) winning 34 seats and the United Gold Coast Convention (UGCC) winning 3 seats out of the total 38 seats.

It is important to state that every political machinery avails itself in a competitive clientelism enterprise to push forward an agenda or programme they deem appropriate to develop a nation.

Indeed, the CPP then had a programme to develop the Gold Coast but did not entirely possess both the constitutional and administrative power to carry out all the intended reforms.

The 1992 constitution of Ghana provides that after every four years, the Electoral Commission of Ghana shall organize a presidential and parliamentary elections to serve as the people’s representatives.

Since 1992, the country has been ruled by two political parties on the back of several intended programmes and policies. In the 2022 fiscal year, Ghana entered yet another International Monetary Fund (IMF) Porgramme for the 18th time, exposing very deep and volatile fiscal failures of the economy.

The IMF programme was only going to commence on the back of a conditioned debt restructuring process both on the domestic and external front.

Ghana’s debt had reached unsustainable levels and without the IMF deal, Ghana was likely to default on its obligation to bond holders.

We must therefore understand the fundamental challenges that have built up into Ghana’s fiscal weakness.

The country has over the years accessed the international credit market to shore up our foreign exchange reserves.

This enables the country to meet its demand for both intermediate and finished goods produced beyond the shores of the country.

When the public debt reached unsustainable levels in 2022, notable credit rating agencies downgraded Ghana’s credit score.

The doors to the Euro bond market which have major global asset managers such as Neuberger Berman, Vontobel, Alliance, PIMCO, BlackRock and Bernstein closed out on Ghana.

In addition, other multilateral and bilateral financial markets kept their doors shut due to country’s high credit risk.

Investors in the international financial arena saw it prudent to hold their debt in safe haven United States hence depriving Ghana from shoring up its reserves.

Significantly, the morning aftereffects of this deprivation were brutal and inconsequential.

The country faced a high foreign exchange risk which found expression in high petroleum prices, motor and vehicular accessories and other major goods which were not produced locally.

Inflation and food price volatility was hitting an all-time high posing serious welfare threat to the poor and vulnerable.

Ghana had no choice than to enter yet another IMF programme and undergo a painful debt restructuring exercise.

The country has received the first tranche of the IMF deal and awaiting the second tranche in its account.

Many capital projects all over the country have been halted due to the external financial engineering underpinning them.

The country is still engaging the external bond holders to finalise the debt restructuring.

On the back of fulfilling its financial obligation in some sectors, the government continues to issue bonds domestically which have kept interest rates high.

The persistence of high interest rates, volatile foreign exchange regime, and inflation coupled with a high degree of informality of the Ghanaian economy leaves a blurry post covid picture for both private and public investors.

There is no ambiguity in the statement that the political establishment since 1992 have done very little to address the teething structural challenges of Ghana’s economy.

 Successive governments have only sought to massage the deep cracks. In this article, we do not intend to explore the performance of past governments.

However, an attempt is made to guide the public policy discourse in anticipation of the manifestos of the two major political parties in Ghana.

The National Democratic Congress (NDC) and New Patriotic Party (NPP) see themselves as two opposing ideological constructs but their terms in office only suggest their distinctness on paper.

In keeping faith with protecting the public purse, all political parties must provide empirical solutions that will build a resilient public finance space.

The spark of the debate must first provide a robust, sincere and an all-inclusive revenue programme. Ghana cannot continue to rely on the international capital market to keep our balance of payments in check.

The expectation is that political parties ought to present a revenue strategy that seeks to raise more money, expand the formality of the economy and driven on the wheels of digitalization.

Ghana currently spends a little bit of over half of its revenue on financing debt whiles the balance is subsumed into the wage bill.

Every practical government is left with no other alternative than to borrow especially when the Electoral College awaits the fulfillment of manifesto promises.

This is the fundamental challenge that leads to debt distress.

In the 2024 elections, political parties must be seen to propose strategies that will turn this tide around.

The various publics must be seen to engage every political discourse in this direction.

We argue that the need for infrastructure and social amenities should not be at the core of political party manifesto briefs.

Public investments are positive externalities that automatically arise when the fundamental problem of inadequate public finances is addressed.

This article hypothesizes that party manifestos must be loud and clear in proposing to build a resilient income generation system that is inclusive and reduces human interface.

We argue that any manifesto that is short of this vision has no panacea for Ghana’s debt crises.

In economic principle, investment arises out of a positive surplus between basic income and disposable income. This is the guiding principle towards weaning the country from debt.

The reading of Ghana’s national budget and economy policy thirty-one times since 1992 has not been seen to be triggering the needed growth and development whiles expanding the frontiers of the private sector.

In this article, we call for desk research to ascertain whether party manifestos feed into the architecture of national budgets.

We contend that there is a significant delink between party manifestos and national budgets. We, therefore, assume in this article that successive governments have used their manifestos as guiding principles in their term of office.

Over 50 percent of the population are in the agriculture sector, yet Ghana remains food insufficient, food prices are volatile and food security has become a growing concern.

The country has witnessed a decreasing growth in the agriculture sector over the years and no government has been able to reverse this receding tide.

The lack of a resilient and sustainable primary production hub gives rise to the importation of commodities that hitherto could have been produced locally.

Hence, the need for the country’s fiscal policy directed towards the rebuilding and modernization of the agriculture sector.

The writers therefore contend that manifestos should be seen to propose structural changes to the economy of Ghana.

Political party manifestos must register their position on how these unfortunate statistics between the agriculture and services sector could be reversed.

If the country is ever to reduce it’s over reliance on external markets for commodities, adequate public investments must be made in the local economy to drive the agenda of import substitution.

In the upcoming 2024 elections, the public policy debates must center on the reengineering of Ghana’s economy and party manifestos should be seen highlighting the importance of this agenda.

The targeting of our public investments must be programme driven and geared towards changing the fundamentals of the country’s economy.

This single strategy has a multiplier effect to change our exchange rate regime, reduce food prices and increase our foreign exchange reserves in the medium to long run.

Ghana’s fiscal policy must be guided by the areas of our economy where there is a competitive advantage.

This article contends that when political party manifestos lack such strategies, they deny the nation the opportunity to reset the statistics in its favour.

It is evident from economic history that government by itself cannot engage solely in the provision of commodities and services.

Hence the need to partner the private sector which has been a key partner to governments in delivering growth and creating jobs.

There is a need on the part of Government to develop robust policy and programme towards spurring private sector expansion.

After all, government’s business is to create the enabling environment and set the rules of engagement.

There are however, critical sectors such as education, health, security amongst others that will need government’s machinery in its entirety.

Again, government is in no position to create jobs for the entire labour force and drive innovation in both the financial and information technology space.

This is why political parties who intend to serve must be seen to have a well thought out programme that embraces all these linkages and propels growth. Political party manifestos should not be shrouded in policy statements that only presents hopes and promises.

In the ensuing presidential and parliamentary elections, the various publics must guide the discourse on how manifestos should be developed.

In this piece, we iterate that manifestos must serve as a treatment effect for the myriad of challenges confronting Ghana’s economy.

The administration and architecture of public spending towards that which addresses the hard-core challenges beneath the symptoms will be key to having a healthy fiscal space.

 As stated earlier, the single most important job for all the populace is to guide the conversation and demand that political party manifestos should primarily focus building a robust public financial management system and spend on that which will drive growth with a multiplier effect.