As global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions set unprecedented records, the Emissions Gap Report 2023 from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) reveals that the current commitments outlined in the Paris Agreement are steering the world toward a temperature increase of 2.5-2.9°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. This emphasizes the pressing necessity for escalated climate actions.

Released on Monday, November 20, 2023 in anticipation of the 2023 climate summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the Emissions Gap Report 2023 titled "Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again)" stresses the imperative for global low-carbon transformations. These transformations are vital to achieve the projected 2030 greenhouse gas emission reductions of 28% for a 2°C trajectory and 42% for a 1.5°C pathway.

Preserving the potential to attain the temperature objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement depends on a substantial enhancement of mitigation efforts during this decade, effectively reducing the emissions gap. Such efforts will enable the establishment of more ambitious targets for the year 2035 in the subsequent round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This approach aims to enhance the likelihood of fulfilling the net-zero commitments, which presently encompass approximately 80% of global emissions.

Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP, emphasized, climate change has impacted every individual and economy worldwide. It is imperative that we cease establishing undesirable records in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature highs, and extreme weather events.

She says countries must break free from the cycle of insufficient ambition and inadequate action, striving to set new benchmarks in cutting emissions, embracing green and equitable transitions, and fostering climate finance.

“Humanity is breaking all the wrong records when it comes to climate change.  Greenhouse gas emissions reached a new high in 2022.  In September 2023, global average temperatures were 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels.  When  this  year  is  over,  according  to  the  European  Union’s  Copernicus Climate Change Service, it is almost certain to be the warmest year on record.”

Inger emphasizes the need for swifter change in the form of comprehensive, low-carbon development transformations across the economy. This change should particularly concentrate on the energy transition. Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions must take more ambitious actions and offer financial and technical support to developing nations.

“Low-  and  middle-income  countries,   which  already  account  for  more  than  two  thirds  of  global emissions, should meet their development needs with low-emissions  growth,  which  would  provide  universal  access  to energy, lift millions out of poverty, and expand strategic industries.”

The report highlights that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rose by 1.2 percent from 2021 to 2022, reaching a record 57.4 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (GtCO2e). Within the G20 nations, GHG emissions increased by 1.2 percent in 2022. The emission patterns underscore global disparities, and due to these concerning trends and inadequate mitigation measures, the world is heading toward a temperature increase well beyond the agreed-upon climate goals for this century.

The continuation of current policy-driven mitigation efforts would result in global warming limited to 3°C above pre-industrial levels in this century. If fully implemented, unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would put the world on a trajectory to limit temperature rise to 2.9°C, while the full implementation of conditional NDCs would aim to keep temperatures below 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These projections come with a 66 percent chance.

These temperature estimates, slightly higher than those in the 2022 Emissions Gap Report, are due to the inclusion of a larger number of models in the 2023 report's global warming estimation. According to current unconditional NDCs, an additional reduction of 14 GtCO2e is required in 2030 to meet the predicted levels for the 2°C target, and 22 GtCO2e for the 1.5°C target. The implementation of conditional NDCs decreases both estimates by 3 GtCO2e.

In terms of percentage reduction, the world needs to cut emissions by 28 percent by 2030 to align with a 66 percent chance of achieving the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement, and 42 percent for the 1.5°C goal.

Progress in policy development since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 has narrowed the implementation gap, which is the disparity between projected emissions under current policies and the complete implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). At the time of adopting the Paris Agreement, it was projected that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030, based on existing policies, would increase by 16 percent. However, today, the projected increase is reduced to 3 percent.

As of September 25, nine countries had submitted new or updated NDCs since COP27 in 2022, bringing the total number of updated NDCs to 149. If fully implemented, these new and updated unconditional NDCs could potentially reduce GHG emissions by approximately 5.0 GtCO2e annually by 2030, constituting about 9 percent of 2022 emissions.

This reduction is in comparison to the initial NDCs. However, achieving least-cost pathways to limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or low overshoot during this century requires further reductions in emission levels by 2030. Substantially increasing implementation efforts in this decade is crucial to avoiding significant overshoot of the 1.5°C target.