On 22nd August 2020, the National Patriotic Party (NPP) launched their 2020 election manifesto in the Central Region of Ghana.

There have been numerous allegations from the major opposition party; the National Democratic Congress (NDC) as to why the NPP chose the Central region.

Aside these allegations, concerned citizens and the people of the Central region cannot cease to wonder if the National Patriotic Party (NPP) decided to launch their 2020 election manifesto in the Central region with ulterior motives.

Why did the Akufo-Addo led government wait till few months to elections to remember the people of the Central region? A harbour and an airport have been promised to the Fante people. Why were these promises not made way earlier to present the intentions of the current government to the people of the Central region?

I shall analyse and interpret general elections based on regional results in Ghana concerning the years 2012 and 2016 allocated to the NPP and NDC to determine if indeed the NPP's move is suspicious.

The selected few regions that will serve as a sample to facilitate this analysis will be the Central and Greater Accra region.

In the 2012 general presidential election, the NDC was victorious with John Mahama as their presidential candidate. Their main contender was the NPP with Nana Akufo-Addo as their presidential candidate.

The rationale for selecting the Central region and the Greater Accra region

In the last two general elections 2012 and 2016, the only regions that had a greater proportion of growth for the NPP aside the Ashanti region were Central and Greater Accra region respectively.

The Ashanti region was not included in the analysis because it remains the stronghold for the NPP whereas the other two regions have been inconsistent.

Therefore to focus on their undoubted win, they need to focus on other regions that led to their massive win in the 2016 general elections.

This presents the need to focus on the next region that majorly contributed to their win in the 2016 general election.

Data

In 2012, in the Central region, the NDC garnered 492,374 votes and the NPP had 430,135 votes. In the Greater Accra region, the NDC had 1,125,751 votes and the NPP polled 1,009,787 votes.

The NPP won 16 constituencies and the NDC won 7 constituencies in the Central region. The NPP won 14 constituencies and the NDC won 20 constituencies in the Greater Accra region.

In the 2016 general presidential election, the NPP was victorious with Nana Akufo-Addo as their presidential candidate with their main contender NDC with John Mahama as their presidential candidate.

In the Central region, the NPP had 496,668 votes and the NDC had 405,262 votes. In the Greater Accra region, the NPP had 1,062,157 votes and the NDC had 946,048 votes.

The NPP won 19 constituencies and the NDC won 4 constituencies in the Central region. The NPP won 21 constituencies and the NDC won 13 constituencies in the Greater Accra region.

In the Ashanti Region, the NPP increased their votes by 109,542. In the Central region, the NPP had increased their votes by 66,533 from the last two general elections.

In the Greater Accra region, the NPP had increased their votes by 52,370. The NPP increased their votes by 45,664 in the Western region. In the Brong Ahafo Region, the NPP increased their votes by 40,592.

There continues to be a decrease in the number of votes as the list continues with Upper East, Volta, Eastern, Northern region and Upper West region respectively.

Data Analysis

In the 2012 general presidential election, the NDC led the NPP by a difference of 62,239 votes in the Central region. The NDC led the NPP by a difference of 115,964 votes in the Greater Accra region.

For the number of constituencies won in the Central region, the NPP led the NDC by a difference of 9. In the Greater Accra region, the NDC led the NPP by a difference of 6.

In the 2016 general presidential election, the NPP led the NDC by a difference of 91,406 votes in the Central region. The NPP led the NDC by a difference of 116,109 in the Greater Accra region.

For the number of constituencies won in the Central region, the NPP led the NDC by a difference of 15. The NPP led the NDC by a difference of 8.

Comparing the results of both 2012 and 2016 for the NPP and NDC respectively.

In the Central region, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) lost 85,112 votes between 2012 and 2016. In the Greater Accra region, the NDC lost 179,703 votes between 2012 and 2016.

The NDC lost 3 constituencies between 2012 and 2016 in the Central region. In the Greater Accra region, the NDC lost 7 constituencies between 2012 and 2016.

In the Central region, the National Patriotic Party (NPP) gained 66,533 votes between the years 2012 and 2016. In the Greater Accra region, the NPP gained 52,370 votes between the years 2012 and 2016.

The NPP gained 3 constituencies between 2012 and 2016 in the Central region. In the Greater Accra region, the NPP won 7 constituencies between 2012 and 2016.

Interpretation

Based on statistics from the 2012 and 2016 general elections, the NPP has an ulterior motive as to why they promised to build an airport and a harbor for the Central region.

The ulterior motive present could only be to secure their existing votes from the Central region as the 2020 general election approaches.