Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez starts his second visit this year to West Africa on Tuesday, aiming to curb migration to the Canary Islands and to counter the Russian presence in the Sahel region.

The West African migration route has seen a 154% surge this year, with 21,620 people crossing to the Canary Islands in the first seven months, according to data from the European Union border agency Frontex.

The wave has stretched resources on the Spanish archipelago, with local authorities saying they may have to house migrants in military camps or even in tents ahead of an expected rise in arrivals due to calmer conditions in the Atlantic Ocean.

Spanish authorities fear that as many as 150,000 more migrants from Africa may be set to make the perilous crossing in the coming months.

According to Frontex data, nearly half of the new arrivals are Malians, forced out of their country by a conflict and economic crisis in which the Russian mercenary group Wagner is involved.

Sanchez is focusing on strengthening relations with Mauritania, Senegal, and Gambia, the main departure points for migrant boats. The first two share land borders with Mali.

Spanish police have long operated in West Africa to strengthen border control as part of Madrid's strategy to give financial and security aid to departure points for migrant boats.

During this trip, Spain will sign circular migration agreements with Gambia and Mauritania - it already has one with Senegal - allowing workers from these countries to come to Spain for short periods to meet labour needs and then return to their countries of origin, a government source said.

RETURN TO MALI

Spain is also planning a return to Mali following the closure of the EU military mission there last May. While France advocated for the mission's termination, Spain is engaged in discussions with Bamako over bilateral military aid, according to a senior Spanish military officer.

"We cannot leave the ground empty for Russian forces to occupy. It is important to maintain a presence in the region," the officer, who requested anonymity, told Reuters.

The Spanish mission could continue the training of the previous European mission, the source said.

Spain's Defence Ministry confirmed that it was in talks over collaboration with Mali without providing further details.

Spain is advocating at the EU and NATO for a stronger focus on the global south, especially the Sahel, in light of the migration surge.

Jesus Nunez Villaverde, co-director of the Institute for Conflict Studies and Humanitarian Action, said that to resolve the Sahel's problems, poverty and the effects of climate change need to be addressed.

"The solution is not military aid, which is a repetition of a failed model. A different kind of aid is needed," he said.

Years of Islamist conflict in the Sahel have fuelled a humanitarian crisis with more than 3.1 million people displaced from their homes in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger as of July, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

In Mali, economic troubles have also worsened since the ruling junta seized power in 2020.

The conflict, unemployment and the impact of climate change on farming communities are the main drivers behind Malians' motivations to migrate, said Ousmane Diarre, head of a Malian NGO that defends migrant rights.

Moussa Diaby Wage, a 20-year-old from Mali, arrived in the Canaries in 2020 in a boat from Mauritania.

Having secured Spanish nationality, his dream is to join the army. Meanwhile, he helps other migrant children in a centre for minors in Tenerife. Of the 50 teenagers living there, 30 came from Mali.

"We came here because Mali is at war, there is a lot of fighting in the north and many people have to make the decision to leave," he told Reuters. "Most of those who come are young, very young, because it's the only way to get a chance (in life)".