Ghana’s energy sector has faced critical financial challenges in recent years, resulting in substantial and unprecedented arrears made up of due and overdue monthly bills, idle capacity charge payments and PPA related claims to the Independent Power Generators (IPGs). These issues stem from inefficiencies in the energy value chain, compounded by mounting public debt and foreign exchange pressures. To address these perennial financial bottlenecks, Ghana could adopt a forward-looking, innovative strategy of leveraging its abundant natural mineral resources for debt swaps. This solution holds the potential to alleviate energy sector arrears, stabilize the financial health of IPGs, and reduce the government’s financial obligations, thereby supporting the overall sustainability of the energy sector.

Current Challenges in Ghana’s Energy Sector

Ghana’s energy sector operates under a hybrid market model that involves both public and private actors. Over the years, power purchasing agreements (PPAs) signed with IPGs have led to the under-utilization power generation capacities, which has often resulted in huge idle capacity charges or compensation payments. These are payments the government makes for power that is available but not consumed. Ghana’s installed electricity generation capacity stands at approximately 5,400 MW, while peak demand hovers around 3,000 MW. This surplus capacity leads to an annual cost burden of over $500 million in idle capacity charge payments, according to the ESRP Report. Coupled with the energy sector’s arrears, which exceeded $2.3 billion by 2023, these financial strains threaten the viability of the sector and undermine economic development.

At the core of this challenge is the foreign currency denominated power generation agreements, which expose the country to foreign exchange volatility. With persistent fiscal deficits and high debt levels (public debt reaching 71% of GDP in 2023), the government has struggled to service both its external obligations and the domestic energy sector’s arrears.

The Strategic Role of Natural Resources in Debt Management:

Ghana is richly endowed with natural resources, including gold, bauxite, manganese, and oil. The mining sector is a critical pillar of the country’s economy, accounting for 37% of export revenues and 14% of government revenues in 2022. As global demand for minerals, particularly critical minerals such as lithium and rare earth elements, rises in line with the energy transition, Ghana is well-positioned to capitalize on its mineral wealth.

A mineral resource-backed debt swap involves exchanging Ghana’s natural resources or future revenues from resource extraction for debt relief or for clearing sector-specific liabilities. This concept is gaining traction globally, with resource-rich countries using it to unlock liquidity, secure investment, and improve their fiscal positions.

For instance, in 2020, Angola engaged in a similar debt swap, utilizing oil as collateral for loans from China, which eased its immediate fiscal pressures. Closer to Ghana, Zambia explored mineral-backed loans to address fiscal deficits and stabilize public finances. These examples illustrate that resource-backed financial instruments can play a pivotal role in addressing structural debt challenges, including in the energy sector.

To address Ghana’s energy sector arrears and idle capacity payments, a mineral-backed debt swap offers several key advantages:

• Reducing Arrears and Strengthening Financial Position

By using mineral resources as collateral, the government can negotiate with IPGs and international creditors to settle outstanding arrears in exchange for future mineral revenues. This approach reduces the immediate fiscal burden on the state and improves the financial position of IPPs, ensuring that they receive timely payments without exacerbating the country’s debt levels.

• Mitigating Currency Risk

One of the key contributors to Ghana’s energy sector challenges is the depreciation of the cedi against the U.S. dollar, which increases the cost of servicing foreign-denominated energy contracts or Power Purchase Agreements. By pegging future mineral revenues (denominated in U.S. dollars) to these payments, Ghana can significantly reduce its exposure to exchange rate fluctuations, thereby stabilizing energy sector finances.

• Attracting Investment and Supporting Energy Infrastructure

Mineral-backed financial instruments can also serve as a platform to attract international investment into both the energy and mining sectors. Foreign investors may be more willing to provide concessional financing for infrastructure projects, knowing that their returns are secured by Ghana’s mineral wealth. This could create opportunities to invest in renewable energy projects, grid expansion, and improved transmission infrastructure, which are crucial for long-term energy sector sustainability.

• Long-term Sustainability and Economic Diversification

Ghana’s dependency on traditional energy sources, such as thermal and hydro power, poses a sustainability risk given the global shift towards renewable energy. A debt swap strategy could prioritize investment in renewable energy infrastructure, powered by mineral revenues, which would help diversify the country’s energy mix and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Minerals such as lithium and cobalt, essential for battery technology, could be leveraged to promote local renewable energy development, thereby creating a more diversified and resilient energy sector.

Key Considerations for Implementation

While the concept of using natural resources for debt swaps presents a viable solution, it must be approached with caution. Several critical factors must be considered to ensure successful implementation:

• Transparent Governance and Resource Management

The success of a mineral-backed debt swap hinges on transparency in the management of both the mineral and energy sectors. The government must ensure that mineral revenues are well-accounted for, and that agreements with IPGs and creditors are transparent and mutually beneficial. Strengthening institutions such as the Minerals Commission and Ghana’s Sovereign Wealth Fund (the Ghana Infrastructure Investment Fund) could help in effectively managing these resources.

• Comprehensive Legal Framework

Ghana will need a robust legal and regulatory framework that governs mineral-backed transactions, ensuring that these arrangements do not exacerbate future debt risks. Proper valuation of mineral assets and careful negotiation with creditors will be critical to avoiding resource misallocation or loss of sovereign control over key assets.

• Engagement with International Financial Institutions

International financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), should be engaged to provide technical assistance and advisory support in structuring mineral-backed financial instruments. Their involvement can help bolster investor confidence and ensure that the arrangement aligns with Ghana’s broader economic and fiscal reform agenda.

• Industry Insights and Best Practices

In examining international best practices, countries like Mongolia and Chile have developed strategic frameworks for managing their natural resource wealth, which Ghana can learn from. Mongolia established a sovereign wealth fund to manage revenues from copper and coal, which has contributed to long-term fiscal stability. Chile, a leading producer of copper, has used its resource wealth to finance infrastructure and social development projects, demonstrating how mineral revenues can be effectively channeled for sustainable development.

Furthermore, Ghana’s energy sector reform must take into account lessons from countries that have restructured their energy debt through innovative financial instruments. Nigeria, for example, successfully restructured its power sector debts through power bonds backed by future electricity tariffs, easing the financial strain on the sector while maintaining investor confidence.

Expert Verdict

Leveraging Ghana’s natural mineral resources through a strategic debt swap represents a viable, innovative solution to the country’s energy sector arrears and idle capacity payments. By deploying this mechanism, the government can reduce its immediate fiscal burden, stabilize the energy sector’s financial position, and create a platform for long-term energy sustainability. However, this approach must be grounded in transparency, prudent governance, and a sound legal framework to ensure that it delivers a win-win solution and lasting benefits to Ghana’s economy.