Introduction:

It is certain that the Covid-19 global pandemic will end someday. What is unknown is the exact date this will happen. The deadly Covid-19 pandemic has already devasted the world.

The loss of previous lives, the pain and discomfort of the disease on victims, the negative impact on the global economy and the negative socio-economic impact of the disease on families and individuals around the world.

This pandemic has even constrained the freedoms of people unaffected by the virus due to the varying restrictions to movements of people in major cities and towns as a measure to contain the spread of the lethal virus.

As at April 13, 2020, the Covid-19 global pandemic has spread to 210 countries, affected nearly 1.9 million people and killed nearly 115, 000 people.

Amongst all the professions affected by death caused by Covi-19, one category stands out; doctors and health workers. So far, the Covid-19 pandemic has killed nearly 130 doctors around the world who were in the frontline of combating the disease.

The central theme of this paper is whether Africa can withstand the mass exodus of its skilled labour force who may be enticed by offers from countries worse hit by Covid-19 to take up employment positions created by Covid-19.

In order to cover this theme, the paper will briefly explore the economic impact of Covid-19 on the global economy in general and Africa specifically.

Subsequently, the paper will also examine the migration phenomenon in Africa prior to the outbreak of Covid-19 and test the effectiveness of Africa Union’s strategies designed over the years to curb “brain drain” in Africa and proceed to situate same on the possibility of a mass exodus of skilled worked out of Africa in a post-Covid-19 era and the economic ramification thereof.

Impact of Covid-19 on Global Economy

Predictions on the global economic impact of Covid-19 is painting a grimmer picture. The World Trade Organization (WTO^[1]) is warning that global trade could plunge between 13% and 30% in 2020 as the Covid-19 global pandemic disrupts normal economic activity and life around the world.

The WTO further predicts that this global economic downturn is likely to exceed the trade slump brought about by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Even though experts believe that there will be a recovery in 2021, this expected recovery is uncertain.

The global economic recovery will be predicated largely on the duration of the outbreak of the virus and the effectiveness of policy responses around the world. These external shocks have ramifications for the economies of Africa.

The Covid-19 has affected all sectors of the economies of Africa from big corporations through small corporations to the informal sector as restrictions to movement of persons to curb the spread of the virus have affected both production and consumption of goods and services.

The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) predicts that the 2020 projected GDP growth of Africa will drop by 1.4 percentage points from 3.2% to 1.8 % as a result of Covid-19. The World Bank estimates that a 1% decline in developing countries’ growth rates will trap an additional 20 million people into poverty. Covid-19 has forced global crude oil price down to about $25 per barrel. African countries like Ghana that expects revenue from crude export will suffer disruption to fiscal projections. As restrictions to movement of persons intensify, farmers in Africa may be unable to attract the required labour to work on farms during the 2020 raining seasons thereby creating implication for food security in Africa. These economic predicaments have extended to job security in both the formal and informal sectors.

Impact of Covid-19 on Global Labour and Employment

International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that Covid-19 global pandemic will create job losses and unemployment. The ILO estimates creates two unemployment scenarios (Low and High). The low unemployment scenario estimate is between 5.3 million and the high unemployment scenario estimate 24.7 million. These unemployment estimates are founded from a base level of 188 million labour per 2019 estimates. This widespread economic recession and its resultant job losses have far reaching implications for the geopolitics, national politics, peace and security in Africa because of weak governments, political instability, armed conflicts and the lack of social safety nets to cushion households in these perilous times. With high unemployment rate already in existence in Africa prior to Covid-19, the projections on job losses and unemployment during this period of Covid-19 paints a grim picture for youth unemployment in Africa and the threat to highly skilled labour who may leave Africa when the pandemic recedes to seek better opportunities abroad thereby compounding the “brain drain” phenomenon in Africa.

Pre-Covid-19 Migration Patterns in Africa

Historically, migration has been an integral part of livelihoods in Africa. Views are however divided in academia about the causes and impact of migration. Within the African continent, migration from one state to another state occurs frequently. Regional integration interventions such as ECOWAS have only sought to mirror this reality by enhancing the movement of people within the African to boost trade and economic activities. According to Professor Joseph Teye, Director of the Centre for Migration Studies of the University of Ghana, migration from Africa to Europe, North America, Asia and the Gulf Region are popular amongst Africans with an estimated number of one and half million Africans living outside the continent. Professor Teye admits that such number could be higher since data on migration is unreliable due to the fact that most African migrants use illegal routes and are undocumented. With the diminishing of legal routes for migration, migrants are falling prey to smugglers and human traffickers. In 2016 alone, more than 5000 African migrants lost their lives in the Mediterranean Sea while attempting to travel to Europe (Revised Migration Policy Framework for Africa And Plan of Action 2018-2027). So even prior to Covid-19, the harsh economic realities in Africa and other factors force migration of citizens (unskilled, skilled and highly-skilled) to migrate to other countries to seek better conditions of life. Migration of highly skilled citizens from Africa costs the Africa continent in both monetary and human resources terms. This has engaged the attention of the continental leadership of Africa for some time now but reversing this trend has proven a gordian nut for the continent.

Migration from Africa and “Brain Drain”

The African Union (AU) recognizes that “brain drain” occurs when significant numbers of highly skilled nationals leave their State of origin to seek livelihoods abroad. An estimated 70,000 skilled professionals emigrate from Africa each year. In the AU’s Revised Migration Policy Framework For Africa And Plan Of Action (2018-2027) which is still in a draft stage, it recognizes that migration of highly skilled nationals from Africa is detrimental to the economies of States of origin countries by hampering the growth and development of industries and service sectors where such highly skilled nationals are needed.

The phenomenon of brain drain in Africa is an age-old problem. The Covid-19 impact on the global health sector will compound the calculus for Africa’s fragile health sector and this require exceptional strategies in these times to minimise the impact of this onslaught on the highly skilled labour force of Africa.

This is because, the health delivery infrastructure in Africa is not in the best of shapes. Additionally, there are no sufficient doctors, nurses and other trained health professional to utilize the meagre health facilities available in Africa. On average, there is 0.45 physicians per 1,000 people in Africa (WHO cited in Mo Ibrahim Foundation website).

This is a deviation from the 1 physician to 1000 patients’ ratio required by WHO. Estimates suggest that, annually, emigration of health care workers from sub-Saharan Africa costs the region $2.17 billion USD.

In Ghana, available data indicate that more than 60% of doctors trained in Ghana between 1985 and 1994 had already left the country, mainly to the United Kingdom and USA. Countries that benefit from these health emigrants from Africa make enormous savings on training cost for doctors. The top four of such beneficiary countries are UK, USA, Canada and Australia as illustrated in the table below:

Table 1: Africa losses $4.6 billion USD on training cost for home-trained doctors to countries (Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2018)

Beneficiary Country of Health Emigrants from Africa	Savings on Training Cost Per Annum (USD)
United Kingdom	$2.7 billion
United States of America	$846 million
Australia	$621 million
Canada	$384 million

It is estimated that Africa has lost $4.6 billion in training cost for home-trained doctors, recruited by these four-top destination countries. The economic push factors of post Covid-19 may cause significant numbers of highly skilled work force such as doctors and nurses in Africans to migrate to wealthy economies in search better livelihood.

Given the enormous challenge posed by Covid-19 to the global health system and the number of doctors who have died in the process of combating the virus (see table 2), it is envisaged that the global health sector will undergo massive overhaul to make them resilient to future health crisis of this magnitude.

These overhauls will include aggressive recruitment of health professional by wealthy countries across the world to fill medical job positions created Covid-19. Africa may be at the receiving end of this recruitment drive when highly trained doctors may begin to search for opportunities to be recruited abroad. This may pose huge challenge to the already fragile health sector of Africa.

These recruitments will not be limited to the health sector alone. Other highly skilled persons such as such as teachers in basic schools, lecturers in tertiary institutions and other professionals may become target of such recruitment thereby compounding the existing “brain drain” phenomenon in Africa.

Table 2: Countries that lost doctors to Covid-19 (April 4, 2020 figures).

No	Countries	Doctor Death
1	Italy	66
2	Indonesia	25
3	China	13
4	UK	5
5	France	5
6	Spain	5
7	Iran	3
8	US	1
9	Greece	1
10	Poland	1
11	Pakistan	1
12	Ghana	1
		128

The continental leadership of Africa should begin to consider the implementation of key strategies that first foresee this situation occurring and devise appropriate mechanisms to stem it.  The African Union (AU) has already recognized this “brain drain” as a challenge to the development of the continent.

This recognition is contained in the Revised Migration Policy Framework for Africa And Plan of Action (2018-2027) as a response to the migration of highly skilled citizens from Africa. This is commendable because the formulation of this strategy (which is still in a draft stage) happened prior to the outbreak of Covid-19 global pandemic.

This is the time to revisit this draft strategy and revise same bearing in mind the risks Covid-19 posed to the highly skilled labour of Africa. It is also time for Africa to recalibrate its priorities to building a resilient economy capable retaining its highly skilled labour force to effectively contain the “brain drain” syndrome in Africa.

Yaro Kasambata

Coordinator

Centre for Peace and Security Research,

University of Professional Studies, Accra UPSA

Email: yaro.kasambata@upsamail.edu.gh

---

^[1] https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm (Accessed April 9, 2020 at 7:40, Accra)

^[2] Ken Ofori-Atta, Ghana Minister for Finance Statement to Parliament on Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Economy of Ghana, March 30, 2020

^[3] https://www.ryerson.ca/content/dam/cerc-migration/news-events/migration (accessed April 7, 2020 at 21:00hrs, Accra)

^[4] https://mo.ibrahim.foundation/news/2018/brain-drain-bane-africas-potential

^[5] https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/article/medical-brain-drain-and-health-care-worker-shortages-how-should-international-training-programs/2016-07

^[6] https://www.who.int/hrh/en/HRDJ_3_1_03.pdf

^[7] https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-deaths-infections-doctors-nurses-healthcare-workers-medical-staff-1496056 (April 4, 2020 at 23:00hrs, and April 13, 2020 at 4am, Accra)