The Head of Micro-Economics and Research at Standard Charted Bank Africa says Ghana’s oil find must not eclipse focus on other priority sectors of the economy, especially agriculture and mining. Ms Razia Khan, who is in the country to conduct a research for her bank, says government must be cautious in its expectations from the country’s nascent oil find. “What we’re cautioning about is the fact that oil is not necessarily going to be a game changer in that respect; it doesn’t change things from the very first day. “Ghana economy has a lot going for it. A diversified base, Ghana is lucky in that [regard]. It’s been able to diversify its other sectors for sometime before transitioning to become an oil producer. Agriculture is important, mining is important. There is manufacturing in Ghana; all of those things, all of those sectors should continue to be given the importance they deserve and oil shouldn’t be allowed to get in the way of that at all,” she said. Ms Khan was speaking on a wide-ranging interview with Kojo Oppong-Nkrumah, host of Joy FM’s Super Morning Show, on Wednesday. As a business executive deemed to be armed with a wealth of knowledge on global issues, Ms Khan observed that headline statistics on Africa have long not reflected the real situation on the ground. “We understand that the headline growth number is not necessarily always going to be reflective of what is going on with the underlying economy. And that’s important to understand the social, the political aspects of what might be changing in a country…we look back at the recent experience of growth during the crisis. We saw subdued growth last year; we’re looking for average growth in the economies within which we operate to rise to just 10 to five percent. That’s a fairly optimistic focus but we would still say that’s not good enough. The crisis has had an impact on the informal economy which is very difficult to measure; the crisis has had a human cost,” she added. This, notwithstanding, Ms Khan again warns that the continent’s gradual recovery from the global economic squeeze must not be confused for a full recovery. “Even though we’re starting to see growth rate recovery, let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that everything is okay. So it’s really about looking through the numbers; it’s not just the headline numbers that’s generated, it’s how meaningful that number is. What sort of a difference that kind of growth is making in the day-to-day lives of the ordinary people,” Ms Khan analysed. tandard Charted Africa projects more favourable economic conditions for Ghana, Ms Khan disclosed. “Very few people will be able think back to a time when the Ghana cedi had this sort of tendency to appreciate. For most Ghanaians its going to be a completely new thing and what’s untested, really, is the impact that this is going to have on inflation and inflation expectations.” “A comfortable disinflation trend is in place and we feel confident that if that can be sustained [that] we’re all likely to see monetary easing from the bank of Ghana. In fact, we have a pretty aggressive call. We think that there is the possibility that we might see interest rates coming down to as much as 4 [percentage points] over the course of this year; we have to see how that plays out,” the economist said. She said a low interest rate regime is necessary because “Ghana’s problem is really sorting out the physical situation and to the extent that the market has already seen interest rates declining, 91-day Treasury bill yields and other bond yields and T-bill yields come right down, that suggests that the market is anticipating that level of monetary easing and that’s made possible by the inflation but it’s also needed to bring down the cost of domestic debt service.” Ms Khan is carrying out a research on the banking sector in Ghana is due to fly to Nigeria to perform a similar exercise. She lauded Ghana’s determination to strengthen pan-African regulation of the banking sector, as more banks come into the country. Story by Fiifi Koomson/Myjoyonline.com/Ghana