The outrage expressed by President Mahama, NDC national executives, some NDC MPs, other senior members of the party and some rank-and-file party supporters, has been strong, harsh, brutal, unequivocal and utterly unambiguous. They feel those MPs who voted alongside the Majority MPs to approve six ministerial nominees of President Akufo-Addo, betrayed the party and Ghanaians at large.

President Mahama wrote this on Facebook: “Ghanaians were sorely disappointed yesterday when several members of the Minority for some parochial and personal interest voted against the principled position adopted by the party. I am also disappointed. Those responsible for this betrayal must do some serious soul searching and learn to place national interest over personal interest.”

Once the initial angst has died down, I would like to rather suggest that those minority MPs have actually done the NDC the world of good! Until last week, many NDC leaders and supporters had almost taken it for granted that the party would win the 2024 presidential elections hands-down, due to the current terrible state of the Ghanaian economy under the Akufo-Addo Administration.

Even President Mahama, in spite of his disappointment with what happened in Parliament, concluded his Facebook post with this: “2024 offers us an opportunity to work hard to defeat this reckless government that seeks to destroy our democracy and the very livelihoods of Ghanaians - an opportunity for us to work and build the Ghana we all want from January 07, 2025.”

The simple fact that should worry President Mahama and the NDC is this: if he and the party could not convince some 20-24 NDC MPs whose political vision and strategic interest should ordinarily align with that of the party and its presumptive flagbearer not to vote for the ministerial nominees because of the size of government in the middle of an economic crisis, how could they possibly expect or hope to convince the generality of Ghanaian voters that “this reckless government that seeks to destroy our democracy and the very livelihoods of Ghanaians” must be removed in the 2024 elections?

Secondly, the NDC must wake up to the fact that, unlike in other democracies, the state of the economy alone does not determine results in Ghanaian elections. Don’t get me wrong, the state of the economy always plays a role in our elections, but the extent of that role vis-à-vis other factors is something the NDC leadership must carefully analyse in order to manage their expectations and that of their supporters. Let me illustrate this point with some presidential election prediction work I did for the 2020 elections.

When I published the final prediction tables below on Facebook and Twitter in the run-up to the 2020 elections (on August 12, November 10 and November 30), some friends who are sympathisers of the NDC made light of the predictions and ridiculed them.

One thing that was clear to me in 2020, and which the NDC must now pay attention to, is that there are so many factors that determine Ghana’s presidential elections. The 36 factors I used in the 2020 model may not even be exhaustive, but they give an indication that while the economy may play a major role in shaping the voting decisions of some people, it may be by no means the only or even the key factor in the minds of the majority of voters. Factors such as the perception of the respective candidates and their running mates, as well as historical support base of each party cannot be overlooked. And, if even NDC MPs could vote against the strategic interest and decision of the party, then the party must wake up to the reality that people who either voted for the NPP in 2016 and 2020 or simply refused to vote for the NDC in those elections, could equally not be relied upon to bring the NDC back to power. The hard work must begin now. The NDC must do away with any complacency, and must be in no doubt that 2024 is not a given! A word to the wise is enough!

Kwaku Antwi-Boasiako, Accra

March 26, 2023