The debate over whether a change of government is necessary to reset the Ghanaian economy hinges on several key arguments. Proponents of this view often cite the need for fresh leadership, new economic policies, and a break from the failures of the current administration.

While a change in government is not a guaranteed solution to the economic challenges faced by the country, it can provide an opportunity to reset the direction of economic policy, address governance issues, and implement necessary reforms. However, the success of such a change depends on the new government’s ability to effectively manage the economy, maintain stability, and earn the confidence of both the public and international stakeholders. The current government have created a mess of the economy and the judiciary.

The impact of new leadership in government on economic policy in Ghana can be significant, as it often brings changes in priorities, strategies, and approaches to managing the economy. Whereas the impact of new leadership on economic policy in Ghana can be profound, there is no guarantee that the new government’s policies and initiatives can shape the direction of the economy for years to come.

The actual outcomes depend on the effectiveness of the policies implemented, the ability to manage external and internal challenges, and the level of public and institutional support. Successful economic leadership requires not only sound policy design but also effective execution and a long-term vision for the country’s development.

In Ghana's Fourth Republic, which began in 1993, changes in government have had significant impacts on the country's economic, social, and political landscape. The Fourth Republic has seen several peaceful transfers of power between the two major political parties, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP). Each transition has brought shifts in policy, governance style, and economic priorities. Here’s a look at the historical impact of these changes in government in the Fourth Republic.

In the year 2001, there was the transition of power from the NDC to the NPP which led to some very significant economic policy shifts, the introduction of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) and the school feeding program to reduce poverty. The government strengthened institutions, promoted good governance, and worked to reduce corruption, which helped improve Ghana’s image internationally. It is important to mention that it was under this government that Ghana signed onto the HIPC Program.

The NDC took over in 2009 and reoriented the government’s focus towards social programs and pro-poor policies. The government increased spending on education, health, and social protection. Despite the change in leadership, the NDC government continued many of the infrastructure projects initiated by the previous NPP government, particularly in the energy sector, though it faced criticism for delays and cost overruns.

Power changed hands again in 2017 when there was the transition from NDC to NPP and brought about an economic transformation agenda, there was a renewed focus on transforming the economy through initiatives like the "One District, One Factory" program and the "Planting for Food and Jobs" initiative. These programs aimed to diversify the economy, promote industrialization and create jobs. Most importantly the introduction of free senior high school (Free SHS) policy, One of the most notable social interventions of the NPP was the introduction of the Free Senior High School policy, which aimed to increase access to education across the country.

All these policy initiatives and social intervention programs shape the direction of governance whenever there is a change in government.

Here are some reasons why a change of government might be considered necessary to reset the Ghanaian economy:

Rising Public Debt: As of June 2024, Ghana's public debt reached GHS 742 billion, which represents approximately 70.6% of the nation's GDP. This is a significant increase from the GHS 608.4 billion debt recorded at the end of 2023, driven largely by the depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi and continued borrowing from external creditors. Ghana has faced growing public debt in recent years, leading to concerns about fiscal sustainability. Critics argue that the government's borrowing is unsustainable, leading to high debt servicing costs, which divert resources away from critical sectors like healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

Inflation and Cost of Living: As of mid-2024, Ghana's inflation rate has been gradually cooling, with July 2024 recording a year-on-year inflation rate of 20.9%. This is a significant reduction compared to earlier months, especially given that food inflation, which had spiked to over 60% in January 2023, dropped to 21.5% by July 2024. The cost of living remains high, with food and housing continuing to be key drivers of inflation. Inflation, particularly food inflation, has been a significant challenge. High prices for basic goods and services have led to a reduced standard of living for many Ghanaians. A change in government may bring new economic strategies to curb inflation and stabilize the currency.

Unemployment: As of 2024, Ghana's unemployment rate stands at two distinct figures. A report by the Ghana Statistical Service indicated a high unemployment rate of 14.7% in early 2024, marking a significant increase compared to previous years. This rise is particularly pronounced among youth and women.

High levels of unemployment, especially among the youth, have created discontent which led the government to introduce job creation policies, such as the Nation Builders Corps (NABCO) and the One District, One Factory (1D1F) initiative, and these policies have faced criticism for not generating enough sustainable jobs for the teaming youth making unemployment a serious national security issue.

Perceived Corruption: There is a widespread perception that corruption has worsened under the current NPP government with most people believing that the president and his vice are more corrupt than their political appointees. Many believe that a change of leadership could bring more transparency, reduce corruption, and restore public trust in government institutions.
Lack of Accountability: Some citizens feel that the government has not been held accountable for its actions, particularly in managing public resources and handling corruption cases.

Reports from the Auditor-General's office have flagged instances of financial mismanagement across various government sectors. These include the misuse of public funds, lack of transparency in procurement processes, and questionable spending by ministries, departments, and agencies. Calls for better governance and accountability often accompany demands for a change in leadership.

Policy Failures: Certain flagship programs such as the "Planting for Food and Jobs" initiative and the "Free Senior High School" policy have faced operational challenges, with some people feeling these programs are unsustainable or poorly implemented.

Lack of Institutional Reforms: A change in government may bring the opportunity for institutional reforms, especially in areas like the judiciary, public sector efficiency, and law enforcement, which many citizens feel are needed to ensure effective governance.

Widening Income Gap: The gap between the wealthy and the poor continues to widen, with many Ghanaians feeling that economic growth benefits only a small section of society. A new government might focus on more inclusive growth policies to ensure equitable distribution of wealth and resources.

Regional Disparities: There are also regional disparities in development, with some parts of the country lagging in infrastructure, healthcare, and educational facilities. Critics argue that a new government might prioritize addressing these imbalances.

Energy Sector Problems: Although there have been improvements in the energy sector, challenges such as power outages (dumsor) and the high cost of electricity persist. These issues affect businesses and households, and a new government could be seen as a potential solution.

Dependence on External Assistance: Ghana's frequent reliance on international financial institutions like the IMF has raised concerns about sovereignty and long-term economic health. Critics argue that a change in government could bring new economic strategies aimed at reducing dependency on external aid.

Fatigue with Incumbent Leadership: After a government has been in power for multiple terms, public sentiment often shifts towards seeking change due to fatigue with the incumbent leadership. People may feel that a fresh leadership team could bring new energy, ideas, and approaches to governance.

Broken Campaign Promises: Many voters believe that some campaign promises made by the current government have not been fulfilled, such as job creation and economic transformation. A change in government is seen as an opportunity to elect leaders who might deliver on these promises.

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Healthcare System Challenges: Despite improvements in some areas, the healthcare system remains underfunded and inadequate for the population's needs. Access to quality healthcare is limited, and a new government might prioritize healthcare reform.

Education System: While the Free Senior High School policy has improved access to education, there are concerns about the quality of education and infrastructure in schools. Critics believe that a change in leadership could address these challenges with better planning and resource allocation.

Political Reforms: Some Ghanaians feel that the political system needs reforms, including addressing issues such as excessive executive power, lack of parliamentary oversight, and political patronage. A new government might be more willing to introduce these reforms.

Decentralization and Local Governance: There is also a growing demand for greater decentralization to give local governments more power and resources. A new administration could implement policies to strengthen local governance and make decision-making more participatory.

Lagging Behind Regional Peers: Some critics argue that Ghana has fallen behind regional competitors like Côte d'Ivoire and Rwanda in terms of economic growth, infrastructure development, and ease of doing business. A change in government could bring policies aimed at improving Ghana’s competitiveness in West Africa.

Environmental Degradation: Issues such as illegal mining (galamsey) and deforestation have led to environmental degradation. Many Ghanaians feel that the current government has not done enough to address these problems, and a new government could take a firmer stance on environmental protection.

Climate Change Policies: Ghana, like many African countries, is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. A change in government could bring more focus on sustainable development and policies aimed at mitigating the impacts of climate change.

It can be argued stridently that some of the government's political responses and actions might be construed as a show of hubris and little acknowledgement of the concerns of the ordinary Ghanaian.

The government, in defending its nebulous policies, will rather resort to organising frivolous forums, which is even a drain on public finances. The government, in responding to the many concerns of laity Ghanaians about the recent economic crisis, has, in many instances, shifted if not attempted to absolve itself of all forms of economic mismanagement by literally trying to kick the can down the road. The public debt, institutional blindness, inflationary pressures, profligate expenditures, and lack of institutional empowerment all have amounted to an unstable economy.

A change in government could lead to reforms aimed at addressing the fiscal deficit, public debt, and inflation. The incoming administration may implement new strategies to improve revenue collection, rationalize expenditures, and restructure public debt.

While a change in government could offer opportunities for economic reform, the success of such a transition would largely depend on the incoming administration’s ability to address key economic challenges, including debt, inflation, unemployment, and fiscal discipline. It could either help stabilize the economy or create further uncertainty, depending on the new government’s policies and effectiveness.

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The writer, Jerry.J.AFOLABI (PhD) is a Financial & Economic expert who believes that ordinary people can do extraordinary things when given the opportunity. He is a change-maker with the ability to easily get people to get things done for the good of humanity. Email: jelilius@gmail.com/+1667-802-7073.