Japan unexpectedly slipped into a recession at the end of last year, losing its title as the world's third-biggest economy to Germany and raising doubts about when the central bank would begin to exit its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy.
Some analysts are warning of another contraction in the current quarter as weak demand in China, sluggish consumption and production halts at a unit of Toyota Motor Corp all point to a challenging path to an economic recovery.
"What's particularly striking is the sluggishness in consumption and capital expenditure that are key pillars of domestic demand," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
"The economy will continue to lack momentum for the time being with no key drivers of growth."
Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) fell an annualised 0.4% in the October-December period after a 3.3% slump in the previous quarter, government data showed on Thursday, confounding market forecasts for a 1.4% increase.
Two consecutive quarters of contraction are typically considered the definition of a technical recession.
While many analysts still expect the Bank of Japan to phase out its massive monetary stimulus this year, the weak data may cast doubt on its forecast that rising wages will underpin consumption and keep inflation durably around its 2% target.
"Two consecutive declines in GDP and three consecutive declines in domestic demand are bad news, even if revisions may change the final numbers at the margin," said Stephan Angrick, senior economist at Moody's Analytics.
"This makes it harder for the central bank to justify a rate hike, let alone a series of hikes."
Economy minister Yoshitaka Shindo stressed the need to achieve solid wage growth to underpin consumption, which he described as "lacking momentum" due to rising prices.
"Our understanding is that the BOJ looks comprehensively at various data, including consumption, and risks to the economy in guiding monetary policy," he told a news conference after the data's release, when asked about the impact on BOJ policy.
The yen was steady after the data and last stood at 150.22 per dollar, pinned near a three-month low hit earlier in the week.
Yields on Japanese government bonds fell after the data as some traders pushed back bets of an early BOJ policy shift. The benchmark 10-year yield slid 4 basis points to 0.715%. The Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab stock average rallied to 34-year highs, with the data further underpinning recent reassurances from the BOJ that borrowing costs will stay low even after ending negative rates.
"Weak domestic demand makes it hard for the BOJ to pivot towards monetary tightening," said Naomi Muguruma, chief bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. "The hurdle for ending negative rates in March has risen."
Latest Stories
-
The mystery of Bomigo: an island of divine laws, sacred goats, and unwavering traditions
1 hour -
Government’s GH₵ 292.4 million mistake: why free sanitary pads are the problem, not the solution
1 hour -
Crystal Palace beat Fulham to book FA Cup semi-final spot
10 hours -
Forest beat Brighton on penalties to reach FA Cup semi-final
10 hours -
MTN FA Cup 2024/25: Berekum Chelsea book semis slot with win over Bechem United
10 hours -
Gov’t promoting galamsey with GoldBod; the GoldBod is galamsey board – Minority
11 hours -
Ghana Navy probes suspected pirate attack on fishing vessel
12 hours -
2024/25 FA Cup: Attram De Visser stuns PAC Academy to reach first-ever semifinal
12 hours -
‘Shocking and excessive’ – Lawyer challenges $18m verdict in Anas-Kennedy Agyapong case
14 hours -
Parliament approves GH₵2.8bn for road maintenance
14 hours -
Minority Chief Whip raises concerns over ambiguities in Gold Board bill
15 hours -
Mahama warns leaders against ‘decisions that kill’ after debt crisis claims lives
15 hours -
Wisconsin Attorney General sues to block Elon Musk $2m election giveaway
15 hours -
Disney faces US investigation over DEI practices
15 hours -
Hair relaxers linked to increased breast cancer risk in Ghanaian women
15 hours