The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Ghana’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 5.7% and projected year-end inflation at 4.8%, despite global economic pressures and uncertainty.

The growth forecast represents an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the 4.6% projected in April.

The projections are contained in the IMF’s latest economic outlook report, released on the sidelines of the Annual IMF/World Bank Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

Joy Business understands that the upward revision reflects Ghana’s commitment to fiscal discipline, spending targeted at stimulating growth, and strong commodity export earnings, particularly from gold.

Higher gold export earnings have supported the country’s trade balance and helped build economic buffers.

Ghana’s commitment to targets under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) programme also contributed to the revised outlook, according to information available to Joy Business.

However, sources close to the Fund have expressed concern about Ghana’s reliance on gold exports and urged the government to diversify its export earnings.

The IMF expects growth to moderate to 5.2% in 2027.

Its 2026 forecast exceeds the government’s estimate of 4.8% outlined in the 2026 Budget, indicating a more optimistic assessment of Ghana’s growth prospects.

According to the Ghana Statistical Service, the economy expanded by 6.0% in the second quarter of 2026, bringing the first-half growth to 6.2%.

Inflation outlook

The IMF projects that Ghana will end 2026 with inflation of 4.8%, down from its April forecast of 7.9%.

The revised projection is also below the government's and the Bank of Ghana’s target band of 8% ± 2 percentage points. That band ranges from 6% to 10%.

With September inflation at 5.2%, the IMF’s forecast suggests a further easing in price pressures by the end of the year.

Bank of Ghana internal projections cited by Joy Business had anticipated an increase in inflation in September, while expecting the year-end rate to remain within the target band.

If the IMF’s forecast materialises, Ghana would record single-digit year-end inflation for a second consecutive year, following a similar outcome in 2025.

World Bank on Ghana’s growth and inflation estimates

The World Bank, in its Africa economic update released in October 2026, maintained its growth forecast of 4.8% for Ghana, unchanged from April. It projects 4.9% growth in 2027.

The Bank expects growth to be supported by the services sector, a recovery in oil and gas activity, and continued progress with structural and fiscal reforms under national programmes.

It described economic activity in the second quarter of 2026 as robust, although growth moderated slightly, with real GDP expanding by 6.0% year-on-year.

On the expenditure side, the Bank said growth was supported by strong domestic demand. Investment increased by 53.0%, while domestic demand rose by 11.2%, reflecting continued strength in private and public spending.

Impact

The IMF’s improved outlook could strengthen investor confidence in Ghana’s economy and support efforts to attract foreign direct investment and additional assistance from development partners.

For investors, stronger growth and lower inflation could improve perceptions of economic stability and the prospects for returns.

Ghana’s participation in the PCI programme could also provide further reassurance to development partners about the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline.

The outlook comes alongside recent upgrades to Ghana’s credit ratings by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.

Together, these developments could improve Ghana’s borrowing conditions and potentially lower the cost of future financing, including any eventual return to the international capital market.

Global economic outlook

The IMF said global economic activity had remained resilient, with the technology upturn, existing buffers and economic adjustments helping to cushion the effects of geopolitical disruptions.

Nevertheless, it projects global growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026, then recover to 3.4% in 2027.

Global headline inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026, then ease to 4.1% in 2027. Energy-importing economies outside the technology value chain face the most challenging outlook.

The Fund warned that the factors supporting resilience have limits, with growth risks tilted to the downside.

Further escalation of conflicts, a reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial intelligence, renewed trade tensions and fiscal vulnerabilities could weaken economic activity.

Conversely, stronger investment in artificial intelligence, associated productivity gains, and a sustained easing of geopolitical and trade tensions could support faster growth.

The IMF also called for stronger fiscal frameworks to respond to disruptive shocks and rebuild room for policy action through revenue measures.