Ratings agency, S&P Global, is forecasting that Ghana's fiscal deficit will widen to 3.9%, a year through 2029.

“Our previous forecast was 2.7% a year. We revised our forecast because of revenue shortfalls in 2026 linked to the temporary removal of the fuel levy, the clearance of legacy arrears to suppliers and contractors, and higher capital spending”, it disclosed in its country ratings report on Ghana.

Ghana's budget for 2026 aims to raise capital spending by 150%. But S&P said the government spending has been heavily curtailed since the end of 2024, particularly for capital projects.

“In addition to increased scrutiny of projects during the implementation period, Ghana also requires projects to be approved by the Minister of Finance for procurement and all capital projects subject to prioritisation”, it mentioned.

It pointed out that the government is implementing revenue measures that could offset more-significant slippage over time. “Non-oil tax revenue, particularly corporate income tax and mineral royalties, benefits from the improving business environment. In addition, investor sentiment is supported by lower inflation and the more-stable exchange rate”.

However, it warned that the conflict in the Middle East could create inflationary and foreign exchange pressures.

S&P continued that revenue could also be bolstered by reforms that aim to simplify value-added tax (VAT), reducing the number of levies and cutting the effective VAT rate over time.

It concluded that the government’s aim is to enhance collection by rolling out digital devices that will increasingly capture revenue from the informal sector, and also by implementing AI-driven solutions to improve the collection of customs revenue.