Decision day is fast approaching in Ghana as hopefuls contend for the Jubilee House and control of Parliament. Campaigns for the pivotal 2024 Presidential and Parliamentary elections are reaching their peak. This election could serve as a landmark for multiparty democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the West African subregion, where democratic principles are increasingly threatened.

Since 1992, Ghana has resorted to a multiparty democratic system of electing a President and Members of Parliament across all 16 regions. Although Ghana runs a multiparty democracy, only two political parties have won elections since 1992, reducing the presidential race to a consistent duopoly between the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the current opposition, the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

The NPP and NDC have dominated Ghanaian politics since the beginning of the Fourth Republic, each securing victory in four presidential elections. The NDC took an early lead, winning the first two elections in 1992 and 1996 under the leadership of Jerry John Rawlings. However, the NPP, led by John Agyekum Kufuor, made a breakthrough in 2000 after a runoff, securing its first victory in the Fourth Republic.

The NPP retained power in 2004 but lost to the NDC in 2008 when the election went to a second round. John Mahama secured the presidency for the NDC in 2012 but was defeated in 2016 by Nana Akufo-Addo of the NPP, making it the first time an incumbent president lost a re-election. The 2016 election also recorded the highest margin of victory since 2000, with President Akufo-Addo receiving 53.9% of the votes.

2024 Presidential Race: Who Are the Frontrunners?

There are 12 candidates on the ballots, but the race will likely boil down to a binary contest once the first ballot is cast on 7 December. Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and former President John Mahama are contending for four swing regions: the Western Region, Central Region, North East Region, and the capital, Greater Accra. Beyond the swing areas, other regions, including traditional strongholds, are expected to serve as battlegrounds as both parties work tirelessly to siphon votes.

If Mahama wins, he will make history as the first Ghanaian president to be re-elected after losing power, akin to Donald Trump’s aspirations in the U.S. If Bawumia wins, he will achieve a milestone as Ghana’s first Muslim president since 1992.

The 2024 elections may also see the emergence of new challengers who could disrupt the traditional two-party race. Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako are notable among these figures, who aim to make their mark in this electoral season.

Disruptors to the Duopoly

Alan Kyerematen, a former NPP stalwart, broke away from the party after losing to Bawumia in the NPP’s internal primaries. Citing unfair practices and favouritism, he now leads the Alliance for Revolutionary Change (ARC) and is expected to siphon off votes from the NPP, particularly in its traditional strongholds.

Similarly, Nana Kwame Bediako, an entrepreneur and leader of the New Force Movement, has positioned himself as a fresh alternative to the entrenched NPP-NDC rivalry. Drawing inspiration from Nigeria’s Peter Obi, Bediako is targeting disillusioned voters and a youthful electorate eager for change.

Despite the emergence of these third forces, many Ghanaians remain sceptical about their ability to challenge the dominance of the NPP and NDC. At best, these smaller parties might succeed in pushing the election to a runoff, potentially reshaping the dynamics of Ghanaian politics.

As the 2024 elections draw nearer, the stakes are high. The outcomes will not only determine Ghana’s leadership trajectory but will also serve as a litmus test for the resilience of its democratic institutions in a region increasingly grappling with political instability.

Road to 50%+1

To win Ghana’s presidential race, a candidate must secure 50% or more of the total valid votes cast across all 16 regions, with no stipulation requiring victory in any specific region. A runoff election is held between the top two contenders if no candidate achieves this majority in the first round. Ghana has experienced two such runoffs—in 2000 and 2008—where third-party candidates significantly influenced the outcomes by drawing enough votes to necessitate a second round.

The New Patriotic Party (NPP) has a relatively shorter path to 50%+1 among the two leading parties. This advantage stems from the party historically winning elections with fewer regions compared to the National Democratic Congress (NDC). On the other hand, the NDC has a longer path due to its reliance on victories in regions with smaller voter populations, as opposed to the NPP’s dominance in the high-population areas.

The Regional Breakdown

Ghana is divided into 16 administrative regions, three of which—Western, Central, and Greater Accra—are considered swing regions pivotal to determining election outcomes. The remaining 13 regions are traditional strongholds unevenly split between the NPP and NDC.

The NPP has historically dominated five regions, including the Ashanti Region, which alone accounts for an average of 17.79% of the national valid vote—the second-highest share after Greater Accra. The NDC, meanwhile, controls eight regions, including the Northern Region, which contributes an average of 7.4% to the national vote.

While the NDC controls more regions, its combined voter strength is less than that of the NPP strongholds. The NPP’s five regions collectively account for an average of 35.10% of the national vote, compared to the NDC’s eight regions, which have a combined 29.57%. This disparity underscores the NPP’s electoral advantage in winning fewer regions but achieving higher voting power per region. In comparison, the NDC typically requires victories in more regions to secure a national majority.

Main Campaign Messages

Dr Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) is campaigning on the success of the Free Senior High School program, a flagship initiative introduced by President Nana Akufo-Addo. Alongside this achievement, Dr Bawumia has unveiled several key proposals to transform Ghana's economy. These include implementing a flat tax rate to alleviate the burden on private businesses and reduce import duties. He also plans to abolish controversial taxes, such as the electronic transaction levy (E-Levy) and the withholding tax on betting earnings. Furthermore, his campaign emphasises expanding digitalisation efforts, creating one million jobs for young people, and diversifying the energy sector with a significant focus on solar energy. Dr Bawumia also seeks to stabilise the Ghanaian cedi by broadening the gold-for-oil program and targeting single-digit inflation by 2025.

Former President John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) has introduced a bold vision, which he calls the "24-Hour Economy." This initiative is designed to generate jobs by implementing a three-shift system, where a single job can be shared among three individuals to maximise employment opportunities. Mahama's campaign also prioritises removing what he describes as "nuisance taxes," such as the 1% COVID-19 levy, the 1% withholding tax on betting earnings, and the E-Levy. His broader goals include tackling economic challenges and promoting inclusive growth to uplift Ghana's citizens and industries.

Key Statistics to Note

Approximately 18.8 million Ghanaians have registered to vote in this year’s elections, with women forming the majority at nearly 52%. This represents an increase of 1.8 million voters compared to 2020. Greater Accra and Ashanti Regions lead with over three million voters each, jointly accounting for about 38% of the national voter population.
Five other regions—Volta, Eastern, Western, Central, and Northern—each have more than one million registered voters. In total, nearly 41,000 polling stations will be available nationwide for voting.

As Ghana approaches decision day, the stakes remain high, with the 50%+1 rule ensuring that every vote could be decisive in shaping the country’s leadership and future.

Key Blocs to Consider

This will be Ghana’s first "TikTok" election, as most campaigns are being conducted on this social media platform, which appeals to both the youthful and adult populations. The first key bloc to consider is Gen-Z, with more than two million young voters expected in this year’s election, many of whom are beneficiaries of the Free Senior High School program introduced by the NPP in 2017.

The second group is the Floating Voters. These voters have not yet decided which way to vote or do not consistently support the same political party. They are unpredictable and tend to make last-minute decisions. It is estimated that Ghana’s floating voters constitute about 10% of the country’s over 18 million registered voters. Historically, these undecided voters have significantly influenced presidential elections in Ghana. For instance, in the 2000 elections, the run-off between Prof. John Evans Atta Mills and John Agyekum Kufuor saw floating votes contributing 14.8% to Kufuor's total. Similarly, in the 2008 run-off, less than 40,000 floating votes helped Prof. Mills defeat Akufo-Addo.

The next cohort is the party faithful. This group comprises the majority of the voting population and is characterised by strong loyalty to their political party, often based on factors such as tribe, location, history, and allegiance. They tend to disregard candidates’ actual performance and vote based on party loyalty. NPP will focus on galvanising its base in regions like Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and Bono, where it enjoys significant support. On the other hand, the NDC will aim to strengthen its base in regions like Volta, Oti, Upper East, Upper West, and others where it holds a clear majority.

Another important bloc is the Muslim population, which numbers over three million individuals aged 18 and above. Historically, the NDC has performed well in Muslim-majority areas. However, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s candidacy as the first Muslim to appear on the ballot for one of the two main parties adds a new dynamic. This bloc’s outcome could significantly impact the election result, with whichever party secures the majority of Muslim support gaining a substantial advantage.

What Will Influence Voters' Choices?

Several pressing issues are shaping voters’ decisions, including youth unemployment, which currently exceeds 18%, the rapid depreciation of the cedi against the US dollar (which has fallen by more than 20% since the beginning of the year), and escalating government debt. Additionally, the poor state of infrastructure, including deteriorating roads, inadequate services, the controversial sale of state-owned properties, rampant corruption, and unjust distribution of wealth are all factors that voters are considering. The environmental degradation of water bodies due to galamsey (illegal mining) activities and an unstable power supply are also of great concern.

Polls indicate that Ghanaians view economic issues as the most critical, followed by energy sector challenges, illegal mining, education (particularly the continuity and improvement of the Free Senior High School program), healthcare, and road infrastructure.

Key Issues So Far

The Seventh-Day Adventist (SDA) Church in Ghana has long called for a change in the timing of elections, specifically requesting that voting not be held on Saturdays, which is their worship day. Despite this request, the Electoral Commission (EC) has upheld 7 December as the fixed date for national elections, citing constitutional provisions and practical challenges in altering the date. Before this year’s election season, the SDA Church renewed its appeal, stressing that holding elections on a Saturday disenfranchises members who prioritise worship. However, the EC has reiterated that the election date will remain unchanged, leaving individual voters to decide whether to participate or abstain due to religious convictions. This issue is expected to impact voter turnout, especially given that the SDA Church has over 300,000 members of voting age.

Another key issue has been the reported shortage of ballot papers. Just eight days before the election, the EC announced a shortage of presidential and parliamentary ballot papers for five constituencies in the Volta Region, a key NDC stronghold. Although the EC confirmed that additional ballots would be printed and distributed in time for the election, the announcement has raised concerns about fairness, transparency, and the EC's readiness for the election.

Furthermore, the issue of media bias remains a significant challenge. Ghana boasts over 700 radio stations, many of which politically connected individuals own This ownership structure has led to spreading fake news and politically biased narratives, particularly during election periods. Media platforms, often driven by political agendas, serve as tools for disseminating information that seeks to sway public opinion and influence electoral outcomes. This issue has been exacerbated by the rise of disinformation, including the case of Oheneba Nana Asiedu, whose radio station, owned by a regional chairman of the NPP, was found to be spreading fake news. His station, based in the NPP stronghold of Ashanti, holds significant influence, making it a focal point for disinformation campaigns. This case is part of a broader trend of politically motivated misinformation, which seriously challenges the integrity of the 2024 elections.

What Are the Polls Saying?

There are currently five released polls or surveys deemed credible in Ghana. Three of these, including Fitch, EIU, and Global Info Analytics, are predicting a one-touch victory for the NDC’s John Mahama. Meanwhile, another poll led by Professor Smart Sarpong, who correctly predicted the 2020 presidential race and an official survey from the presidency, predicts a run-off with Dr Bawumia leading in the first round.

A Tight Race With Unpredictable Outcomes?

Ghana’s 2024 presidential elections promise to be one of the most competitive in recent history, with the race too close to call. The 2020 elections resulted in a hung parliament, reflecting a nation deeply divided between the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). While the NDC appears to have gained momentum amid dissatisfaction with the ruling NPP, historical data reveals the party’s struggles to secure the required 50%+1 votes, with its best performance since 2000 being a narrow win in 2012. On the other hand, the NPP has consistently surpassed the 52% mark in presidential races since 2000, except in 2020, when it dipped to 51.2%.

The entry of prominent third-party candidates further complicates the dynamics of the 2024 elections, Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako. Their combined appeal, particularly among the youth—who comprise over 40% of the 18.8 million registered voters—could dilute the dominance of the two main parties. This fragmentation of votes raises the likelihood of a runoff. A critical question remains: Will these candidates draw more support from the NPP’s traditional middle-class base or the floating voters often courted by the NDC?

Economic grievances also shape voter behaviour, especially the fallout from the 2023 debt restructuring exercise, which affected over 1.3 million individual bondholders. The NPP’s support among the middle and upper classes could erode due to apathy or protest votes, further straining the party’s chances. Both leading candidates must dominate their strongholds and win key swing regions—Western, Central, and Greater Accra- to secure victory. The Northern regions will be another critical battleground, where the NDC has traditionally excelled but faces competition from the NPP’s Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, who has narrowed the margins in recent elections.

Projections indicate the NDC could secure wins in 11 regions, including the swing regions, leaving the NPP dominant in five regions. However, even in the Ashanti Region, the NPP’s stronghold, its vote share may decline slightly from 72.8% in 2020 to an estimated 70.5%. As the campaigns intensify, the interplay of these factors—regional dynamics, economic grievances, and the influence of third-party candidates—will ultimately determine the outcome of what is shaping up to be a fiercely contested election.

External Implications of the Outcome of Ghana’s Elections

Ghana is the first Sub-Saharan African country to gain independence and runs one of the most transparent democracies in Africa and the West African sub-region. The country is bordered to the north by the coup-infested Burkina Faso and lies within the ECOWAS bloc, where military takeovers are common. With the recent developments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, Ghana’s elections are expected to serve as a yardstick for measuring the current democratic stability of the sub-region, especially after the events in Senegal.

Regarding geopolitics, Ghana is considered a darling to the West, although it claims neutrality. The presence of Russia and China in the sub-region makes this year’s election even more crucial. The election will determine the next president,  navigating Ghana’s position within a geopolitically significant ECOWAS bloc.

Beyond geopolitics, Ghana is currently under an IMF-supported programme to recover from one of its most severe economic shocks. The election’s outcome will significantly influence the path of this programme, as the opposition leader has consistently promised to renegotiate the deal with the Fund.

Ghana remains important to international investors, especially after announcing a default and pleading with foreign and local investors to take a haircut. The election outcome is critical for investors hoping for stability and recovery, allowing them to recoup their investments when Ghana resumes payments next year and beyond.

About SBM

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