Decision day approaches in Ghana as approximately 18.8 million registered voters prepare to head to the polls on December 7 to elect a President and 276 Members of Parliament. While 12 candidates will appear on the ballot for the presidency, the contest is expected to crystallize into a head-to-head battle between Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and former President John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

Both front-runners are focusing their campaigns on four critical swing regions: the Western Region, Central Region, North East Region, and Greater Accra, where the election could ultimately be decided. Beyond these regions, traditionally partisan strongholds are also shaping up as key battlegrounds, with both parties making strenuous efforts to attract votes from typically loyal bases.

This year’s elections may also mark the emergence of influential third-party candidates, potentially disrupting Ghana’s long-standing two-party dominance. Alan Kyerematen, a former NPP stalwart running as an independent, and Nana Kwame Bediako, an entrepreneurial newcomer, stand out as contenders seeking to redefine the political landscape. Their participation could dilute the voter base of the major parties and introduce fresh dynamics to an already competitive race.

The stage is set for a high-stakes election that could reshape the trajectory of Ghana's democracy and governance. With a polarized electorate and an increasingly unpredictable political environment, the 2024 polls promise to be one of the most consequential in the nation's history.

In this analysis, I invite you on a statistical journey through Ghana's 16 regions, examining voting trends since 1996. With both leading presidential candidates hailing from the northern part of the country, it is fitting to begin our exploration in the northern regions. Over the years, these five regions, combined, have evolved into key battleground, despite maintaining a consistent loyalty to the Green—a reference to NDC—since the inception of the Fourth Republic in 1992.

This deep dive will shed light on the shifting electoral dynamics within these regions, offering insights into how the historical dominance of one party has faced increasing competition. It also sets the stage for understanding the broader national trends as we track how other regions have voted over the years, painting a comprehensive picture of Ghana's political landscape.

Let's start from the most populous region in the northern part of Ghana - Northern region.

1. NORTHERN REGION

The Northern Region of Ghana has long been a stronghold for the NDC, consistently delivering over 50% of the valid votes to the party in every election since 1996. However, recent trends show a gradual decline in the NDC’s dominance, with its vote share dropping from a peak of 61.10% in 2004 to 52.60% in 2020. Meanwhile, the NPP has steadily gained ground, increasing its share from 34.30% in 2000 to 46.40% in 2020.

This steady rise, coupled with the shrinking gap between the two parties—from 26.8 percentage points in 2004 to just 6.2 points in 2020—signals that the Northern Region may no longer be a guaranteed win for the NDC but a competitive battleground. With 1.2 million registered voters in the upcoming election, the region is poised to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome.

Press PLAY to watch how the region has voted since 1996

2. NORTH EAST REGION

My next stop is in the North East Region; carved out from the old Northern Region in 2019, it exhibits a fascinating voting pattern that reflects its gradual political transformation over the years. Historically, the constituencies now forming the North East were strongly aligned with the NDC.

In 1996, the NDC secured a commanding 75% of the vote, compared to the NPP mere 12.40%. However, over the years, this dominance has waned significantly, with the NPP gaining ground in nearly every election cycle. By 2020, the region had shifted from being an NDC stronghold to an NPP-leaning area, with the NPP winning 51.40% of the vote compared to the NDC’s 47%.

Between 2000 and 2004, the NPP saw a significant surge in its support, increasing its vote share from 11.30% to 32.20%, while the NDC’s vote share plummeted from 45.10% to 43%. This period marked a pivotal moment as the region’s overwhelming support for the NDC began to erode. Subsequent elections saw the NPP steadily closing the gap, achieving near parity in 2016 (49.40% for the NPP versus 48.50% for the NDC) and overtaking the NDC in 2020.

3. SAVANNAH REGION

Let's now turn our attention to the Savannah Region which was also carved out from the former Northern Region in 2019. It displays a consistent voting pattern heavily favoring the NDC. Since 1996, the constituencies now within the Savannah Region have shown unwavering support for the NDC, maintaining vote shares above 56% in every election. In 1996, the NDC secured a dominant 67% of the vote compared to the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) 29.60%, establishing its status as a stronghold. Although the NPP has made minor gains in some election cycles, its share has remained relatively stagnant, peaking at 39.50% in 2008 and declining slightly to 35.20% in 2020.

Analyzing the trends, the NDC's consistent dominance reflects its deep historical roots and strong grassroots support in the region. Despite the NPP’s modest improvements, particularly in 2008 when it achieved its highest vote share, the party has struggled to significantly shift the region’s political alignment. The NDC’s vote share dipped to 56.70% in 2008 but quickly rebounded in subsequent elections, reaching 64% in 2016 and maintaining 63% in 2020. This suggests a resilient voter base that remains largely loyal to the NDC, even amid national political shifts.

4. UPPER EAST REGION

Now I take you to the Upper East Region which has consistently favored the NDC since 1996, maintaining its position as a stronghold for the party. In 1996, the NDC secured a dominant 69% of the vote, with the New Patriotic Party (NPP) trailing far behind at 17.40%. Over the years, the NPP has made incremental gains, reaching 34.40% in 2020, but the NDC has consistently captured over 50% of the vote in every election cycle. The NPP’s most notable improvement occurred between 2000 and 2004, when its vote share increased from 19% to 31.70%. However, the NDC has demonstrated remarkable resilience, bouncing back even in years like 2000, when its vote share dipped to 49.80%—its lowest since 1996.

5. UPPER WEST REGION

It's time to go to the Upper West Region which has been a regular stronghold for the NDC since 1996, never shifting its loyalty to the NPP. The NDC has maintained commanding leads in every election, with its vote share exceeding 50% throughout the period. In the inaugural multi-party election in 1996, the NDC captured a remarkable 74.60% of the vote, leaving the NPP with only 11.20%. Though the NDC's dominance slightly diminished over the years, it remained the clear favorite, reaching 67.40% in 2020, reaffirming its entrenched support in the region.

The NPP, despite showing some growth over the years, has been unable to make significant inroads. Between 1996 and 2008, the party’s vote share rose from 11.20% to a peak of 37.70%, marking its best performance to date. However, this upward trend has been inconsistent, with declines in 2012 and 2020 when its vote share dropped to 29.30% and 29.90%, respectively.  

6. BONO REGION

From the 5 northern regions we head south to the middle belt of Ghana of Ghana. Our first stop will be in the Bono Region, a subset of the former Brong Ahafo region which has become a significant stronghold for the NPP since 2000. The NPP’s dominance is clear in the data, with the party winning more than 50% of the vote in every election since the turn of the century. In 2000, the NPP made a significant breakthrough, securing 62.40% of the vote, compared to the NDC, which had only 34.20%.

Since then, the NPP has maintained a commanding presence in the region, peaking at 60.30% in 2016, and consistently capturing around 58% in 2020. While the NDC has maintained a presence in the Bono Region, its share of the vote has steadily decreased over the years, reflecting a shift toward the NPP. The NDC’s best performance in this region was in 1996, when it won 52% of the vote, narrowly beating the NPP’s 46.20%. However, the party’s share has dropped in every subsequent election, reaching a low of 38.40% in 2016, and rising slightly to 40% in 2020

7. BONO EAST REGION

Bono East Region, a relatively new region carved from the Brong Ahafo area is next. It displayed a significant shift in political trends over the years, with the NPP gradually gaining ground while the NDC remains a strong force. The NDC held a dominant position in the region in 1996, winning 69% of the vote compared to the NPP's 28.10%.

However, since 2000, the NPP has steadily increased its vote share, narrowing the gap between the two parties. By 2020, the NPP secured 42.90% of the vote, while the NDC captured 56%, indicating that the NDC still retains a lead, but the gap is significantly smaller compared to previous elections.

From 2000 to 2008, the NPP's share of the vote increased from 41.90% to 43%, with a slight dip in 2012 to 38.80%. The NPP rebounded in 2016, reaching 45.80%, though the NDC's vote share also declined to 52.80%. In 2020, the NDC’s dominance in the region remained intact, but the NPP continues to close the gap.

This trend suggests that the Bono East region has become more competitive, with the NPP making steady gains and the NDC working to retain its support base. The region will likely remain a key battleground in this year’s elections, with both parties vying for the crucial swing voters who could determine the outcome.

8. AHAFO REGION

Ahafo has over the years leaned toward the NPP since 1996, though the region has seen some fluctuations in the margin of victory. In the 1996 election, the NPP secured 42.20% of the vote, while the National Democratic Congress (NDC) won 57%, reflecting the latter's dominance at the time. However, the NPP made significant strides over the next few elections, particularly in 2000, when it surged to 56.70%, decisively overcoming the NDC's 40.70%.

The NPP continued to hold a commanding lead, maintaining more than 55% of the vote in both 2004 and 2008, solidifying its position in the region. Despite the NPP’s stronghold, the NDC has managed to remain competitive, especially in 2012 when the party's vote share increased to 48.30%.

This showed a narrowing of the gap as the NDC gained some ground, although the NPP still secured a majority with 50.80%. By 2016 and 2020, the NPP’s vote share remained steady at around 55%, while the NDC consistently hovered around 44%.

9. WESTERN NORTH REGION

The Western North region, originally part of the old Western Region, has long been a stronghold for the NDC, with the party commanding overwhelming support since the 1996 election. In that year, the NDC secured a dominant 79% of the vote, while the NPP lagged with only 20%.

This trend of NDC dominance continued in the subsequent elections, with the party maintaining a stronghold, despite the NPP's growing presence. In 2000, the NPP made significant strides, increasing its vote share to 33.10%, although the NDC still held a decisive lead with 62.90%. By 2004 and 2008, the NDC continued to win the region with over 59% of the vote, solidifying its political influence.

However, recent elections have shown a noticeable shift, with the NPP gaining ground. In 2016, the NPP captured 44.90% of the vote, and in 2020, it reached 45%. Meanwhile, the NDC’s support slightly declined, securing 53.70% in 2016 and 54% in 2020.

This narrowing gap between the two major parties suggests that the Western North region, once firmly in the NDC’s grip, is becoming more competitive. While the NDC still holds the majority, the NPP’s continued rise points to a potential shift in the region’s political dynamics in future elections.

10. ASHANTI REGION

Let's now focus on the largest "BLUE" belt in Ghana - the Ashanti region, a key stronghold for the NPP, which has consistently supported the party in every election since 1996. In 1996, the NPP secured a significant 65.80% of the vote, with the NDC trailing at 32.80%. This dominance continued in the following elections, with the NPP’s share of the vote rising steadily. By 2000, the NPP had increased its share to 74.80%, further strengthening its position. In 2004, the NPP's performance peaked at 77%, while the NDC’s share remained relatively low at 21.80%.

Although the NDC has been unable to break the NPP’s stronghold, the gap between the two parties has narrowed slightly in the later years. In 2008, the NPP still commanded a strong 72.50%, but the NDC’s vote share increased to 26%. In 2012, the NPP received 70.90%, with the NDC reaching 28.40%.

The 2016 and 2020 elections saw similar trends, with the NPP maintaining a solid lead—76.30% in 2016 and 72.80% in 2020—while the NDC secured around 23% to 26%. Going into this year’s elections with over 3.3 million registered voters, the Ashanti region remains a critical vote bank, which is likely to continue dominating, though the NDC’s been making in roots.

11. EASTERN REGION

From Ashanti we move to another blue bloc. In fact, the Eastern region has seen a gradual but steady shift in political allegiance, with the NPP making significant gains since 1996. In the 1996 election, the NDC maintained dominance with 55% of the vote, while the NPP trailed behind at 43.50%.

However, by 2000, the NPP began to make substantial inroads, increasing its share to 52.80%, while the NDC's support declined to 43.40%. This marked the start of a trend where the NPP increasingly gained favor in the region, with the party securing 60.30% of the vote in 2004, leaving the NDC with just 38.40%.

The NPP’s hold on the Eastern region strengthened further in the subsequent elections. In 2008, the NPP won 57% of the vote, with the NDC gaining 41.10%. The following elections in 2012 and 2016 saw the NPP maintain its dominance, securing 56.90% and 62.40%, respectively, while the NDC's support remained comparatively low at 42% and 36.60%.

In 2020, the NPP continued its strong performance with 60.50% of the vote, while the NDC garnered 39%. The results suggest that the Eastern region has increasingly favored the NPP in recent years, and the NDC has struggled to reclaim its earlier stronghold, with the gap between the two parties widening over time. This trend indicates that the NPP has solidified its position as the leading political force in the region.

12. OTI REGION

From the blue arena let's do some greens. The Oti region has remained a stronghold for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) since its inception. In the 1996 elections, the NDC secured an overwhelming 91.10% of the vote, with the New Patriotic Party (NPP) only managing 8%. This dominance continued in the 2000 election, although the NDC's support began to decline slightly to 76%, while the NPP increased its share to 17.20%. Over the years, the NPP has steadily gained ground, but the NDC has maintained a dominant position in the region.

In subsequent elections, the NDC's lead continued to shrink, with the party receiving 65.40% in 2004, 63% in 2008, and 68.80% in 2012. The NPP, on the other hand, saw a gradual increase in support, securing 28.50% in 2004, 34.10% in 2008, and 28.50% again in 2012.

By 2016, the NDC's support dropped to 63.40%, while the NPP's share grew to 34.60%. In the 2020 elections, the NDC’s share of the vote was 62.80%, with the NPP securing 36%. While the NDC has consistently held a majority in the Oti region, the NPP’s steady rise in support over the years signals that the region, once firmly in the NDC's grip, has become more competitive.

13. VOLTA REGION

The Volta region has been the main consistent stronghold for the NDC since 1996, showing overwhelming support for the party in every election. In the 1996 election, the NDC garnered an impressive 94.90% of the vote, while the New Patriotic Party (NPP) could only secure 4.40%. This trend of NDC dominance continued in the subsequent elections, with the party receiving 87.50% in 2000 and 90% in 2004. The NPP’s share of the vote remained relatively low during these years, hovering around 6.80% in 2000 and 9% in 2004.

Although the NPP’s share of the vote began to show slight increases in the later years, the NDC remained firmly in control. In 2008, the NDC won 89.20%, while the NPP received 8.90%. The NDC’s support continued to be substantial in 2012, with the party securing 91.40% of the vote, while the NPP’s share remained low at 7.40%.

In 2016, the NPP saw a modest increase to 10.80%, but the NDC still dominated with 87.70%. In the 2020 elections, the NPP made further gains, reaching 14.10%, while the NDC’s support dipped slightly to 84.80%. Going into this year’s elections, the Volta region, with over 1 million registered voters, remains a crucial battleground for the NDC, although the increasing share of the vote for the NPP suggests that competition may become fiercer in the future.

14. GREATER ACCRA REGION

It's now time to move south and to the coastal regions of the country. Let's start from the capital. The reality is that Greater Accra region has long been a key battleground in Ghana’s elections, remaining a crucial swing region since 1992 and serving as a bellwether until the 2020 elections. In the 1996 election, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) won the region with 54% of the vote, while the New Patriotic Party (NPP) secured 43.30%.

The region's political dynamics shifted significantly in the 2000 elections when the NPP surged ahead, capturing 53.10% of the vote compared to the NDC's 42.10%, marking a pivotal moment in the region’s voting history.

The trend continued with the NPP maintaining a lead in 2004, receiving 51.70%, while the NDC garnered 46.60%. However, the region became more competitive again in 2008 and 2012, with the NDC slightly regaining control, securing 52.10% in 2008 and 52.30% in 2012, while the NPP’s support hovered around 46%.

In 2016, the NPP retook the lead with 52.40%, while the NDC’s share dropped to 46.70%. In 2020, the NDC regained the majority with 51% of the vote, while the NPP secured 48.10%. As the region enters this year’s elections, Greater Accra remains highly competitive, reflecting its role as a critical swing region in determining the overall winner, with both parties fiercely vying for support.

15. CENTRAL REGION

The Central region has consistently played a pivotal role as a bellwether in Ghana’s elections, voting in alignment with the overall winning party since 1996. In the 1996 election, the NDC won the region with 55%, while the NPP secured 43.30%. However, by 2000, the NPP made significant inroads and captured 49.70% of the vote, while the NDC's share dropped to 43.50%. This marked the beginning of a trend where the region’s vote aligned with the party that ultimately emerged victorious.

In the following elections, the NPP continued to gain strength, securing 58.80% in 2004 compared to the NDC's 38.90%. However, in 2008, the NDC made a comeback, capturing 50.60% of the vote, while the NPP received 46%. This shift once again aligned with the winning party, as the NDC went on to win the national elections.

The trend of alternating support continued in 2012 when the NDC won 52.10%, and in 2016, the NPP regained control of the region with 53.20% while the NDC received 43.40%. In 2020, the NPP slightly outpaced the NDC with 52.70% to 46%, once again signaling the region's alignment with the national victor. Going into the 2024 elections, the Central region remains a key swing area, continuing its reputation as a bellwether, with voters closely mirroring the broader national trend.

16. WESTERN REGION

The Western region has long been a crucial swing and bellwether region in Ghana’s elections, consistently reflecting the broader national trends. In 1996, the region saw a slight NDC advantage, with the party securing 55% of the vote, while the NPP garnered 48.40%.

However, by the year 2000, the NPP began to make significant inroads, securing 53% of the vote and shifting the balance of power. This trend continued into 2004, when the NPP surged to 66.40%, with the NDC’s share dropping to 38.90%, marking a major shift in the region's political landscape.

Over the next decade, the Western region continued to display its swing-voter tendencies. In 2008, the NDC gained ground with 50.60%, while the NPP secured 54%, reflecting the region’s tendency to support the national victor. In 2012, the NDC regained a slight edge with 52.10%, while the NPP received 47.70%. The NPP regained control in 2016, receiving 55.80% of the vote, and in 2020, the NPP continued its lead with 51%, while the NDC garnered 46%.

Despite the creation of the Western North region in 2019, which divided the region into two, the Western region has remained a key battleground, continuing its role as a bellwether and a barometer for the national outcome. The region’s close elections and its ability to reflect the broader national trend will make it a critical area of focus in the 2024 elections.