In the spate of three years, the West African sub-region has been beleaguered by a notable wave of unconstitutional regime changes. Unlike the post-independence military coups d’état, which were instigated against a backdrop of corruption and economic mismanagement, the post-COVID era has seen coups that represent a multifaceted paradigm shift in grievances.

From jihadist movements in the Sahel (manifesting as insecurity) to perceptions of influence from former colonial powers, to unconstitutional extensions of presidential terms and widespread corruption coupled with escalating economic inequality, five nations —four of which are West African— have weathered a succession of unconstitutional takeovers.

The post-COVID period has marked a particularly bleak epoch for the ECOWAS region, with three successful military coups in Mali and Guinea before the close of 2021 alone. In August 2020, the military, spearheaded by Colonel Assimi Goita, usurped the government of President Ibrahim Keita, castigating him for corruption and poor management amidst burgeoning insecurity fomented by Jihadist groups in Mali.

Prior to this, there had been a series of widespread protests clamouring for President Keita's resignation. Succumbing to international pressure for the reinstatement of democratic rule, the military junta, alongside the National Committee for the Salvation of the People (CNSP), planned for the establishment of a transitional government in September 2020.

This interim administration was led by civilian President Bah Ndaw, Moctar Ouane, and Colonel Assimi Goita, serving as President, Prime Minister, and Vice President respectively. However, in May 2021, another coup was engineered by Colonel Goita, who subsequently declared himself a transitional president, an act that was met with international opprobrium and led to ECOWAS suspending the regime.

Following this severe upheaval in Mali, a similar event emerged in Guinea. On September 5th,2021, the regime of President Alpha Condé, who had been in power since December 2010, met a violent downfall. Spearheaded by Lieutenant Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, a former officer in the French Foreign Legion and Head of Guinea’s Special Forces, a turbulent wave of mutiny washed over Guinea with Condé's detention, the dissolution of the government and constitution, and the closure of borders. Condé’s government stood accused of corruption, human rights abuses, and flagrant abuse of power to manipulate the constitution, enabling him to run for a third term.

In 2022, Burkina Faso morphed into the next prey of military rule. In January, the democratically elected president, Roch Marc Christian Kaboré (in office since 2015), was ousted in a military-led popular coup. The coup followed weeks of protests over the government’s failure to confront escalating Islamist insurgency and burgeoning insecurity. A mere nine months later, coup leader Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba was himself supplanted by Captain Ibrahim Traoré for the same reasons, compounded by several political missteps. The popular support both military coups garnered underscored a deterioration in public confidence in existing political institutions in the country amidst an unwavering demand for alignment by external actors.

Additionally, unsuccessful coup attempts were also recorded in Guinea Bissau, São Tomé and Príncipe, and The Gambia in 2022.

The recent military coup in Niger has underscored the necessity to employ more robust measures to counter the challenges in the sub-region. Meanwhile, certain ECOWAS members, spearheaded by Nigeria, and Western powers such as the UK, US, and France have threatened to resort to military intervention to reinstate the deposed President Mohammed Bazoum as the President of Niger. However, this approach has provoked substantial reprisals from the military juntas in Burkina Faso and Mali.

The unabashed public jubilation and overt display of pro-Russia alignment have heightened concerns regarding the future of democracy in West Africa. It has been noted that, despite the pledges made to welcome the democratic wave that swept across Africa in the late 1980s, the core principles of democracy are presently in a state of decline.

Is Autocracy gaining popularity in Africa?

Across all nascent democracies, one of the formidable obstacles that impede the success of instilling democratic values is the abuse of power. In Africa, there have been copious instances of human rights abuses, flagrant disregard for constitutional processes, electoral manipulation, and colossal evidence of corruption. Such practices have progressively eroded public trust in the democratic systems of their nations.

According to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index 2022 and 2021 report, Sub-Saharan Africa reached an unprecedented high: of the 44 countries, only Mauritius was characterized as a Full Democracy, with 6, 14, and 23 other African countries reported as Flawed, Hybrid, and Authoritarian regimes respectively.

Another study by the Afrobarometer reveals that, of the 34 African countries surveyed, 68% prefer democracy to any other form of government, 74% reject military rule, 77% oppose a one-party state, and 82% denounce autocracy. Despite a significant endorsement of democracy, the study also disclosed a gradual decline in support for democracy, receding from 73% to 69% over the past decade.

Speaking at a conference organized by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale  Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) on the theme, "African governance futures: Strengthening democratic resilience amid disruption," Prof. Gyimah Boadi articulated his concern about the trajectory of democracy in Africa. He stated, “Between 2014/2015 and 2021/2022, support for democracy has precipitously declined in several countries: Mali, Burkina Faso, South Africa, and Guinea, respectively by 36, 26, 21, and 15 percentage points.

The same study by the Afrobarometer indicates that young people support military coups as compared to their older generations. It was observed that tolerance for military intervention is higher among young people (56% of those aged 18-36 years) than among older citizens (46% of those aged 56 years and above). “Alarmingly, this pro-military-intervention sentiment is a clear majority opinion in 22 out of the 36 countries surveyed, and this view is highly pronounced in Mali, Tunisia, Guinea, Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire,”. This marginally originates from the exponential rate of youth unemployment, loss of confidence in the political system and high inequality between the majority poor and the minority rich.

Where did ECOWAS go wrong?

In recent times, major regional bodies particularly the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has come under attack over their double standard and cherry-picking approach in dealing with political tensions in the sub-region. Critics argue that, in some instances, it has promptly condemned unconstitutional changes of government, while in others, it has been slower to respond. A classical case is the organization’s lukewarm approach to Alpha Conde’s decision to amend the constitution that made him President for the third term in Guinea. Despite the fact that the 2001 ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance discourages any constitutional amendment that undermines the principle of change of power, ECOWAS members have not been up and doing in promoting its principles.

In a similar scenario, in the run-up to the 2020 Ivorian election, Alassane Ouattara ran and won the third time amidst widespread protests of unconstitutionality to serve the third time after the two terms. The 78-year-old President Ouattara stood his ground on account that the 2016 constitutional amendment allows him to run the third term. Despite the political unrest and unlawful repression of dissent that spiraled, ECOWAS looked on unconcerned.

ECOWAS's lack of intervention was met with criticism, especially given its stance on similar issues in other member states (Mali, Guinea, Gambia and Togo). Some observers pointed out that ECOWAS had been inconsistent in its response to constitutional alterations across the region. This inconsistency was perceived as a failure to uphold democratic principles uniformly across member states.

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