As many as 190,000 people across Africa could die in the first year of the coronavirus pandemic if crucial containment measures fail, the World Health Organization (WHO) warns.
The new research also predicts a prolonged outbreak over a few years.
"It likely will smoulder in transmission hot spots," says WHO Africa head Matshidiso Moeti.
This patchier and slower pattern of transmission sets Africa apart from other regions, WHO experts say.
Other factors taken into account are the region's younger populations who have "benefitted from the control of communicable diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis", as well as lower mortality rates.
The WHO's warning comes as Africa's most populous nation, Nigeria, plus others including South Africa and Ivory Coast, have begun relaxing some of their lockdown measures.
What does the study say?
The study finds that between 29 million and 44 million people in the WHO African region could get infected in the first year of the pandemic. Between 83,000 and 190,000 could die in the same period, it warns.
The estimates are based on prediction modelling, and focus on 47 countries in the WHO African region with a combined population of one billion - Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and Djibouti are not included.
Across the whole of the African continent more than 2,000 coronavirus deaths have been recorded by Africa's Centre for Disease Control. By comparison, 140,000 have died in Western Europe, where the virus took hold several weeks earlier.
Cases have been recorded in every African nation except Lesotho.
South Africa has the highest number of confirmed cases - more than 8,200 and 160 deaths - while Algeria has the most deaths - 483.
"Covd-19 could become a fixture in our lives for the next several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region," Dr Moeti says in a WHO statement.
"We need to test, trace, isolate and treat."
Latest Stories
-
George Twum-Barimah-Adu pledges inclusive cabinet with Minority and Majority leaders
29 mins -
Labourer jailed 5 years for inflicting cutlass wounds on businessman
29 mins -
Parliament urged to fast-track passage of Road Traffic Amendment Bill
30 mins -
Mr Daniel Kofi Asante aka Electrician
31 mins -
Minerals Commission, Solidaridad unveils forum to tackle child labour in mining sector
36 mins -
Election 2024: Engagement with security services productive – NDC
37 mins -
Retain NPP for the good of Ghana – Rebecca Akufo-Addo
37 mins -
‘Let’s work together to improve sanitation, promote health outcome’ – Sector Minister urges
38 mins -
Ellembelle MP cuts sod for six-unit classroom block at Nkroful Agric SHS
42 mins -
‘I’ll beat the hell out of you if you misbehave on December 7’ – Achiase Commanding Officer
44 mins -
AFPNC leads the charge on World Prematurity Day 2024
50 mins -
Court remands unemployed man over theft of ECG property
56 mins -
Election security rests solely with the police – Central Regional Police Command
58 mins -
NCCE engages political youth activists at Kumbungu on tolerance
59 mins -
‘In Mahama’s era students lacked chalk, but are now receiving tablets’ – Bawumia
1 hour