Every great movie has a preview or what we used to call “comedies”. The 2012 elections have had more than its share of these. Major candidates have toured the country, either to listen, to spread hope or to show the people “unprecedented achievements.” There have been visits abroad, to foreign leaders and institutions—to demonstrate to Ghanaians that our major candidates matter, if not to us yet, to foreigners and foreign institutions—after all, a prophet sometimes is without honour in his own land. Fortunately, despite the ardent courtship of foreign leaders and institutions, they will not vote here in December. There have been dueling church services, to ask for God’s help for a successful and peaceful election. At these, there have been prayers for peace—even as we prepare for war. There have been gargantuan and dueling rallies--- at Mantse Agbonaa to demonstrate support. And these rallies have been organized despite clear evidence that they attract only the committed and turn off the uncommitted. And there have been insults—lots of it. Unfortunately, I predict that we will have more insults because even as we condemn insults, we celebrate in our respective parties the insulters. Truly, except for the prayers—most of these things have been just a preview or what my big brother used to call “comedies”. Unlike most of these, the registration exercise is one of the truly significant election-related events. Before moving to discuss it, let me dismiss some myths and/or misconceptions. First, there are many who keep talking about how each of the two major parties has about 50% of the votes. That is pure fantasy. The fact is that as at now, every party has zero votes. Nobody has a vote till we register. Not President Mills. Not Nana Akufo-Addo. Not former Presidents Rawlings and Kufuor and not Afari Gyan! To add to this, four years is a long time and to assume that all those who voted a certain way will vote the same way is, to some extent, wishful thinking. This means that the next forty days will determine by and large who has a bigger chunk of voters. Finally, here is something constructive for those with excess energy who have been insulting others. Instead of insults, let them register people for their parties to demonstrate their love and loyalty. Second, people assume that the biometric registration exercise is tamper-proof. Not at all. First, foreigners can still be registered unless there is vigilance by all of us. Of course, this does not mean physically trying to prevent others from registering because one believes that they are foreigners. There are clear rules about how one can challenge those who may be foreigners who attempt to register. Hopefully, since this is more apt to occur along our borders, our security forces will resolutely guard our borders so that others do not come in to dilute our votes. Furthermore, while the machines can weed out extremely under-aged people who attempt to register, it cannot catch all the under-aged. Third, the biometric register itself is perfect. Not at all. For instance, the finger-print scanner must be cleaned after every few registrants to keep it functioning and sometimes, the machine may not save the data put in. Most of the time, this would be due to human error. Fourth, those who are not educated may have difficulty providing the needed data and will need assistance in assembling and supplying the needed data. That is true. This is where party agents can be very helpful to the process. They can help the uneducated, the elderly and the disadvantaged to organize their data and themselves and thus help increase the numbers of those who register. Fifth, each machine can register as many people as will show up. Not really. The machines are programmed to take about a hundred people a day. While in some cases, it can take a few more, there are going to be instances when people will be turned away and have to return to register. Sixth, since this is a forty-day exercise, everyone has forty days to register. Not really. Since each machine will be for four polling stations, it means your polling station will have only ten days out of the forty to register you. After disposing of these problems, let me discuss how to read who “wins” or loses this exercise. First, in the base regions, the first step to winning in December is registering supporters in March and April. Therefore, as soon as this exercise is over, pundits will be looking for how many registered in Ashanti and Eastern regions on one hand versus how many registered in the three Northern regions together with Volta on the other hand. Of course, there are caveats. About a quarter of the votes in Ashanti have gone to the NDC in past elections while the NPP has been edging up gradually in the north. As you look at these figures, they will answer the question of whether Ashanti has recovered from the apathy that was presciently predicted by Ben Ephson and may have cost Nana Addo a first round victory in 2008. Also, they will answer the question of how much lower the NDC numbers will be due to former President Rawlings non-involvement in the three Northern regions and Volta region. In short, how much will “Papa J’s” energy be missed? Second, in the floating regions and groups, the numbers registering will be a good indication of how keenly contested the battle for Parliament will be. This is because Parliamentary control will be determined in Greater Accra, Central, Western and Brong Ahafo regions. We know to a large extent who will win most of the seats in Ashanti, the three Northern regions and Volta region. The only question is the margins and how these will help the respective Presidential candidates. For instance, in 2008, the NPP easily retained late Baah Wiredu’s seat but lost nearly 10,000 off his 2004 margin. Parliamentary majority will be determined in the floating regions. In these regions, high registrations bode well for the opposition while low registrations bode well for the incumbent party. This experience is borne out universally by the fact that with few exceptions, incumbents tend to win low turnout elections while opposition parties tend to win high turnout elections. An exception to this rule was when Bush was re-elected over Kerry despite an increased turnout. There are two caveats here. First, the increase must be an increase in percentage of voters from election to election rather than in absolute numbers. The numbers tend to go up most of the time. For instance, it is estimated that Ghana’s new register could have up to 13 million voters compared to the about 9 million who voted the last time. The floating regions and their significance matters, not just in the Parliamentary but also the Presidential election. Here is why. If this election goes to a second round as most pundits are predicting, the winner of the second round is almost certain to be the candidate of the party that has a majority of seats in parliament. Ghanaians, as they demonstrated in 2008, are unlikely to vote for a candidate who does not have a majority in the incoming parliament. Finally, the forgoing analysis leads to some inevitable strategic considerations. First, it means that if a voter can vote either in a base region or a floating region, his or her party will be most helped by that voter registering and voting in the floating region. Second, it means that the NPP must work hard to increase registration since a bigger voter registration and turnout will most likely inure to its benefit. Third, it is imperative that the evolving plan to create more parliamentary seats on the basis of the newly created districts must be careful, prudent, balanced and fair. A process that appears to favour any particular party or regions aligned to it will breed anger, resentment and maybe violence. Let us move forward together—in peace and in trust—towards a successful 2012 election. Written by Dr. Arthur Kobina Kennedy University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast. 20th March, 2012 Email: Arkoke@gmail