Seven elections (this includes two run-offs) and four presidents later and a feverish preparation towards an eighth led me to this exercise. I must say that this exercise has not come without its challenges. To overcome them, I have had to piece together data from a variety of sources: Ghana Electoral Commission, African Elections Database Online, PeaceFM archived election results, and Michael Amoah’s piece in the African Journal of Political Science and International Relations published in April, 2009. I count 6 elections for this exercise starting 1996 and including 2000 round one, 2000 round two, 2004, 2008 round one and 2008 round two. I count the run offs as separate elections because it provides additional data points as well as accounting for some of the interesting dynamics at play during those run offs. For example in 2000, third party candidates secured 6.8% of the votes cast ad while they were not contenders in the run off there is very little doubt that their pledge of support for the main opposition party then, NPP, during the run off was helpful. In the 2008 runoff, two regions (Western and Brong Ahafo) which had voted for the incumbent party, NPP, in the first round, voted for the opposition party, NDC in the second round. I leave out the 1992 elections mainly because I believe that the opposition presented more of an electoral challenge beginning in 1996. What I present here are solely my insights and opinion from my examination of the data available and the different analysis I subjected the data to. I am fully responsible for the content of this piece. My observations are averaged over the six elections I refer to above. The fifteen things are the following: 1. The Big Picture: In presidential elections, the NDC averages 52.3% of the vote compared to the NPP’s 43.9% in presidential elections. In parliamentary elections, the NPP has averaged 99 seats compared to the NDC’s 107 seats. Please note that the averages here are impacted by, for example, the 1996 election where the margin of victory for the NDC was 17.8% in the presidential election and 72 seats in the parliamentary elections. The NPP neutralizes some of that impact with their 13.8% margin of victory during the 2000 runoff. 2. NPP’S Performance: It is not surprising to state that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) has won Ashanti Region in all six elections (including the two run offs in 2000 and 2008.) They have won the Eastern Region five times, Western and Brong Ahafo four times, and Central and Greater Accra Regions three times. The party has never won the following regions – Volta, Northern, Upper East and Upper West. 3. NDC’s Performance: The National Democratic Congress (NDC) has won the following regions in all six elections (including the two run offs in 2000 and 2008)-Volta, Northern, Upper East and Upper East. They have won Greater Accra and Central Regions three times, Western and Brong Ahafo twice, and Eastern Region once. The party has never won Ashanti Region. 4. Party Strongholds: We can count Ashanti and Eastern Region as NPP strongholds and Volta, Northern, Upper East and Upper West as NDC Strongholds. a. Ashanti and Volta regions present the starkest differences between the two parties in terms of stronghold voting patterns. On the average NPP wins Ashanti 74.3% to 25.5% but the NDC wins Volta 84.4% to11.0%. The NDC is therefore stronger in its key strong hold than the NPP. b. However if you combine the regions identified above as each party’s stronghold, and average the percentage of votes gained in the last 6 elections, the NPP averages 65.2% in its stronghold of Ashanti and Eastern combined while the NDC averages 66.2% in its strongholds of Volta, Northern, Upper East and Upper West. c. The NDC does better in NPP strongholds by averaging 33.8% of votes over the last six elections. The NPP manages only an average of 26.8% in NDC strong holds. 5. Advantage Regions: I put Central Region in the NPP column as a region of advantage. NPP has an average vote count of 56.2% when they have won the region in presidential elections compared to NDC’s 53.2% when they have won the region in presidential elections. I put Brong Ahafo in the NDC column because the party averages 56.5% when they have won the region compared to NPP’s 52.9% in presidential elections. It is even more instructive because they have won the region 2 out of the 6 elections for the purposes of my analysis. 6. Up for grabs: I classify Greater Accra and Western Region as the two regions up for grabs. Both parties have won the region three times each with the NPP averaging 55.0% when they have won the region compared to NDC’s 53.5%. The difference of 1.5% although is in the direction of the NPP, the difference is small to categorically place in the NPP’s column. In the Western Region, the NPP has averaged 54.7% when they have won the region compared to NDC’s 54.6% amounting to a difference of only .1%. 7. Net Gains/Losses since 1996: In the regions I classify as NPP strongholds, the party has experienced an average net loss of 0.5% since 1996. The NDC has experienced an average net loss of 1.3% in their strongholds. In the Central Region which I place as an advantage for the NPP, the party has experienced an average net loss of 1.8%. In Brong Ahafo, which I plan as an advantage for the NDC, the party average’s a net loss of 0.6%. 8. Net Gains/Losses since 1996(Regional): A region by region analysis does show the NPP making its biggest net gains in Upper West, 5.3% and Upper East, 3.4%. The NDC manages a minor 0.1% net gain in Greater Accra and Northern Region. The party (NDC) biggest net losses are in Upper East 2.5% and Eastern Region 2.3% 9. Voter Turnout: The national average voter turnout is 70.5% with a net loss of -1.6 over the last six elections. Ashanti Region leads in voter turnout (75.8%), with four other regions(Volta, Northern, Eastern, and Central) averaging between 70.4% and 72.9%. The remaining regions average between 67.6% and 69.6%. in the high 60%’s in voter turnout. 10. Voter Turnout in Party Strongholds: In the regions I classify as strongholds for the NPP, the party has an average voter turnout of 73.4% compared to NDC’s 70.7%. The NPP has seen a net loss of 0.5% in voter turnout in its stronghold compared to NDC’s 1.6%. 11. Voter Turnout Net Gains/Loss: All regions with the exception of Ashanti(net gain of 0.75) and Northern Region (net gain of 0.1)s, all other regions have experience a net loss in voter turnout ranging between 0.6% and 1.9%. 12. Parliamentary Elections: The NPP has experience an average net gain of 15.7 seats between 1996 and 2008. The NDC has experienced an average net loss of 6.7 seats. The NPP’s biggest net gains have come from Brong Ahafo-a net gain of 4.0. The same region represents the NDC’s biggest net loss, an average of 3seats. 13. Parliamentary Elections in Strongholds: In the regions I classify as NPP strongholds, the party has experienced an average net gain of 2 seats. NDC has experienced a very negligible net loss of 0.1seats in its strong holds. 14. Other Parties Performance in Presidential Elections: Other parties have a combined average of 3.9% of the votes in presidential elections. Their best performance was during the first round of the 2000 election where they featured 5 candidates and gained a total of 6.7% of the vote. On the whole they have combined to experience an average net loss of 0.1%. They featured the highest number of candidates(6 in total) in 2008. 15. Other Parties Performance in Parliamentary Elections: Other parties/independent candidates have won a combined average of 6.5 seats in parliamentary elections with their most win in 2004. Where Do We Go From Here I make no predictions based on these insights. It is obvious that both parties come to face the electorate in December with unique strengths and major challenges in terms of their electoral position. The reality is that several other factors and dynamics at play on the ground in Ghana will actually determine the outcome of the election. Voters, I always argue, cannot be predicted with absolute certainty. I will therefore wait patiently till the Chairman of the Electoral Commission certifies the results and declares a winner.

DISCLAIMER: The Views, Comments, Opinions, Contributions and Statements made by Readers and Contributors on this platform do not necessarily represent the views or policy of Multimedia Group Limited.

Tags:  

Related to this story

• CEO of Gold Empire Resources Ltd. Emmanuel Yirenkyi Antwi named Ghana’s ‘Most Respected CEO in Gold Mining’

---

• Portlink Ghana Ltd. CEO George Glory Opeku listed among 2024 recipients of 100 Most Influential People Awards

---

• Over 800 illegal miners arrested since 2023, Foresters urge dialogue to end galamsey

---

• EC increases media accreditation to constituency and regional collation centres to 4,500

---

• Atiwa East MP rewards 41 teachers for hard work and dedication

---

• Ghana Shippers’ Authority celebrates 50 years of resilience and innovation

---

• Be proud of NDC and vote massively – Fifi Kwetey tells Volta Region residents

---

• 99% of Ghanaian households can’t afford decent homes – Revised Ghana Housing Profile

---

• Leicester City appoint Van Nistelrooy as new manager

---

• We are committed to restoring the glory days of the Black Stars – GFA

---