As earlier projected by stakeholders, the Monetary Policy Rate has been maintained at 12.5 percent for the second consecutive time this year.
This therefore casts doubts on a possible further reduction of general lending rates by commercial banks which usually adjust their rates according to the change in the Policy Rate.
The decision comes after 2 days of deliberations on the country’s economic conditions by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana.
The Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Kwesi Amissah Arthur just a while ago explained the decision to maintain the Policy Rate at 12.5 percent was informed by the assessment of the balance of risks to inflation and growth.
He added that notwithstanding the imminent risks in the economy, measures are in place to combat the possible negative implications for the economy.
A number of factors influenced the decision of the MPC:
1. The Monetary Policy Committee observed that conditions in the global economy remain uncertain, with implications for financial markets and commodity prices.
2. On the domestic front, inflation remained stable, largely influenced by non-food inflation this time around. Our analysis indicates that inflationary pressures will remain moderate in the last quarter, in line with established seasonal trends.
3. Conditions for the external trade sector remain generally favourable, supported by significant export growth.
4. Indications are that the growth potential in the economy remains strong, despite the downward adjustment of projected GDP to 13. 6 per cent from 14. 4 per cent in 2011. Developments in the CIEA provide evidence that the pace of economic activity remains firm going into the last quarter of the year.
5. Consumer confidence improved driven by increases in the consumer welfare sentiments and stable inflation expectations. However, business confidence softened.
6. Looking ahead, wage pressures, payment arrears and recent depreciation of the exchange rate have increased the upside risks to inflation. In the short-term, the impact of these underlying inflationary pressures on the economy remains contained.
The Bank’s inflation forecasts show that the end year target will be achieved. Movements in the exchange rate remain consistent with the delivery of the Bank’s inflation target.
7. The Committee will continue to monitor emerging risks and will implement appropriate measures to counter any adverse effects on macroeconomic stability.
8. Given the assessments and the balance of risks to inflation and growth, the MPC has decided to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 12. 5 per cent.
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