Have you taken note that going by the poll results of Global Info Analytics, the gap between John Mahama and Dr Bawumia has been narrowing since the beginning of this year? From a 57%-43% gap in favour of the NDC flagbearer at the beginning of the year, the Global Info polls now give JDM only a 51.9% lead.

There is a “latest” poll, one by Statistics Professor, Smart Sarpong. His poll result, released on Friday, November 22, puts Bawumia ahead with 49% against 41% for Mahama. It is instructive that his surveys covered all 276 constituencies of the country.

“Interesting times are here,” you may sigh and comment. Interesting, indeed. Anything may happen between now and December 7.

Sometime in July, this year, I prophesied to John Mahama that he had entered the toughest, most gruelling election battle of his political life from which he might emerge terribly bruised. At the time of my warning, he was 57% ahead in the polls.

What NDC should not do is what its main statistics man, Dr Tanko Rashid-Computer, has done: rubbishing the latest polling. I know, for a fact, that Professor Smart Sarpong has been dead accurate on two previous polling occasions. What NDC should do is change its communication messages.

Dr Tanko Computer should ask himself why, even going by Global Info Analytics polling, the NDC’s lead has dropped from 57% to 51%. That, in my respectful opinion, is what should worry NDC’s strategists. Something is wrong with its messaging. Where are NDC’s communicators? They have failed to communicate effectively regarding Free SHS, an issue that concerns over 80% of the population. Months ago, I read NDC’s responses to ‘Dumsor’. Impressive. Today, the NDC communicators seem to have sunk underground.

Besides, any keen observer will agree that the Bawumia campaign has proved innovative. An example is its "human billboards" positioned at street intersections. That is creative. It was one whole week before we saw NDC’s “human billboards”.

Their house-to-house is more aggressive. Those young men and women have all the patience to engage people at home; they promise to return when their answers don’t impress the people – and they do return. Only this week, they have come out with the latest promise: “If your polling station is far, we will come with a car to pick you up and drive you there”

Also, unless the crowds being pulled by Dr Mahamudu Bawumia are a deception, I find it difficult to believe that the Global Info Analytics poll result showing Bawumia trailing with 40.5% is reflective of the Ghanaian mood.

Did Global Info Analytics poll Ashanti voters? I ask because ultimately what Ashanti says is what determines the outcome of December 7.  In 2020, the arrival of Ashanti votes wiped out the combined votes of Volta and the three Northern Regions and left Akufo Addo with 500,000 which unassailably sealed his victory.

Bawumia and the NPP have something more to hang their hopes on. It is what has been termed “trend-based analysis”. This analysis states categorically that “NDC is unlikely to win the 2024 election”. It uses trends to forecast that “in both Greater Accra and Central Regions, critical swing areas, historical trends favour NPP over NDC.”

It goes on: “With Bawumia as NPP presidential candidate, the party has a real chance of making gains in the Northern Region”. The trend is that NDC’s support in the region has declined by over 8% while the NPP has seen an increase of more than 10%.” Additionally, it says, Bawumia, could make notable inroads in U.E, UW and Savannah Regions.

What about Volta? The trend analysts conclude that the Volta Region “is likely to disappoint NDC”. It cites “the Keta sentiment”, as expressed by its chiefs, and the “Amewu factor”. This NPP MP is credited with the “unprecedented transformation” of Hohoe.

Elsewhere, it suggests that “Bawumia is also likely to gain significant support from the Zongo and Muslim communities”

We live to see.

And now, ladies and gentlemen, permit me to deal with indecorous remarks made by two politicians this week. One, by NDC communicator, Dela Edem, insensitively gloating over the physical disability of wheelchair-bound ex-President Kufuor, is callous.

Edem’s sin smells to the skies. It shows what unacceptably low levels of humanity politics has reduced this nation to. In our indecent haste to be rich through politics, Ghanaians – all Ghanaians – have thrown caution to the pigs.

The NDC, however, has won my respect. In what looks like the first such internal reprimand by a political party since the birth of the Fourth Republic, it has officially condemned its communicator and apologized to the former President.

Please, let it not be said about this generation that we embarked on the Fourth Republic without a moral compass. 

The second this week is a gaffe, an act of indiscretion by Afafranto flagbearer, Alan Kyerematen. A flagbearer who has an eye for Ashanti votes does not go about even daring to be seen disputing with JAK, a man in the hearts of the Ashanti nation. Indeed, Kufuor’s stature is beyond tribe; he is the most respected Ghanaian politician alive. In my estimation, only Kwame Nkrumah and General (later Mr) Ignatius Kutu Acheampong can hold a candle to this gentle giant, the Father of the Nation.

I have a third concern this week. It is based on reports of “VOTE BUYING IN 3 REGIONS” produced by the Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO).

Something troubles me. Did CODEO actually see “political figures distributing money”, as stated in its report? In that case, its observers should have run to the police. 

The problem with enforcing the law is that vote buying, though a crime, is like the law against LGBTQI – you have to catch the offender in the very act.

Also, it bears asking, was the vote-buying law not in force when politicians of both parties, in previous years, displayed TV sets, and deep freezers among others, live, at their congresses, conferences and primaries? Even when sums of money changed hands, we were told that “they are T&T”.

And so the bribing goes on, and the law is lame.

My opinion: this law does not deserve to remain on the statute books: it is more honoured in the breach - with clever language, political muscle and a lack of desire to prosecute - than in observance.