Drug-resistant pathogens could threaten the food supply for more than two billion people and raise healthcare costs by $159 billion annually by 2050, according to a modeling of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) indicating that, for every $1 invested in urgent action now, there could be a return of $28.

The analysis, conducted by a global coalition of leading health and development organizations, is the first to thoroughly estimate the economic and health impacts of AMR on both humans and food-producing animals.

The modeling revealed that without immediate action, drug resistance could lead to annual global GDP losses of up to $1.7 trillion by 2050. The transmission of resistant pathogens from livestock to humans could incur costs of up to $5.2 trillion and could result in production losses in the livestock sector equivalent to the consumption needs of 746 million people, or over two billion in a more severe scenario by that year.

The analysis, published in three reports, was conducted by experts from WOAH, Animal Industry Data (AID), the Center for Global Development (CGD), the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), and RAND Europe, with input from The World Bank.

The EcoAMR series (Health and Economic Impacts of AMR in Humans and Food-Producing Animals), led by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), utilized the latest data from 204 countries and 621 subnational regions to project the effects of AMR on mortality, healthcare costs, food security, and the global economy.

AMR ranks among the top ten global health threats to humanity, contributing to the emergence of "superbugs," including bacteria that are no longer treatable with antibiotics.

Director General of WOAH, Dr. Emmanuelle Soubeyran, stated that while the threat of drug-resistant infections to human health is well acknowledged, the impact of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) on animal health, the environment, and the economy must not be overlooked.

“On top of the drastic human death toll, drug-resistant pathogens can also severely impact animal health and welfare. It creates huge strains on the economy as well as on our sustainable development efforts. For the first time, we have an idea of exactly what’s at stake unless the global community takes urgent action now.”

Policy Fellow at the Center for Global Development (CGD), Anthony McDonnell, stated that AMR poses a substantial economic burden. However, taking timely and thoughtful action can yield significant returns on investment by reducing healthcare costs, enhancing the economy, and fostering a healthier society overall.

 “It is in high-income countries’ interests to ensure that those in poorer parts of the world have access to high-quality treatment,” Anthony indicated. 

Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray, emphasized the necessity of a "One Health" approach that encompasses human, plant, and animal sectors. He explained the importance of collaboration between private and public sectors at both national and global levels, stating that only a global commitment and evidence-based investment can effectively address this escalating health threat.

“These data highlight the need to accelerate comprehensive solutions to tackle AMR,” he said. 

Urgent investment needed to combat AMR to save millions and boost global economy by $960 billion annually

The animal health analysis indicated that a global 30 percent reduction in antimicrobial use in livestock over a five-year period could result in a cumulative increase in global GDP of $120 billion from 2025 to 2050.

The EcoAMR series estimates that approximately 39 million people could die from antimicrobial resistance (AMR) by 2050, particularly affecting older adults and individuals in low- and middle-income countries. These findings align with results from the recently published Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) project.

The authors of the EcoAMR series have called for urgent investments to support AMR National Action Plans, noting that nearly 90 percent lack allocated funding for implementation. Research on human health indicated that increased investment in new antibiotics, healthcare improvements, universal vaccine coverage, and sanitation could prevent over 110 million deaths from 2025 to 2050.

Investing in access to antibiotics and developing new drugs, experts say, could lower healthcare costs by $97 billion annually, boost the labor force by 23 million, increase tourism by 1.2 percent and hospitality by 0.6 percent, adding $960 billion to annual GDP, while also generating an additional $679 billion per year in health benefits, according to the human economic analysis.

The EcoAMR series estimates that about 39 million people could die due to AMR by 2050, especially among older people and those in low- and middle-income countries. This study is consistent with the results from the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) project recently published. Together, these findings provide a complete picture of the critical global threat posed by AMR.

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